Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.6% implied probability of no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 29-30 Governing Council meeting, driven by the bank's data-dependent approach following its March 19 decision to hold the deposit rate at 2% amid modest 0.9% euro area GDP growth projections for 2026. Recent Eurozone HICP inflation surging to 2.5% in March from 1.9%, fueled by energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, alongside ECB President Lagarde's March 25 remarks opening the door to hikes even for short-lived pressures, has lifted increase odds to 23.4%. Manufacturing PMI rising to a 45-month high of 51.6 in early April signals input cost jumps but no imminent cuts, keeping decrease probabilities near zero.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoTipos de interés del BCE: abril de 2026
Tipos de interés del BCE: abril de 2026
Sin cambios 75.7%
Aumento 23.3%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos <1%
Bajada de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$282,577 Vol.
$282,577 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Bajada de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
<1%
Sin cambios
76%
Aumento
23%
Sin cambios 75.7%
Aumento 23.3%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos <1%
Bajada de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$282,577 Vol.
$282,577 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Bajada de más de 50 puntos básicos
$54,564 Vol.
<1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
$57,135 Vol.
<1%
Sin cambios
$78,578 Vol.
76%
Aumento
$92,299 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.6% implied probability of no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 29-30 Governing Council meeting, driven by the bank's data-dependent approach following its March 19 decision to hold the deposit rate at 2% amid modest 0.9% euro area GDP growth projections for 2026. Recent Eurozone HICP inflation surging to 2.5% in March from 1.9%, fueled by energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, alongside ECB President Lagarde's March 25 remarks opening the door to hikes even for short-lived pressures, has lifted increase odds to 23.4%. Manufacturing PMI rising to a 45-month high of 51.6 in early April signals input cost jumps but no imminent cuts, keeping decrease probabilities near zero.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Mercado abierto: Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volumen
$282,577Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.6% implied probability of no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 29-30 Governing Council meeting, driven by the bank's data-dependent approach following its March 19 decision to hold the deposit rate at 2% amid modest 0.9% euro area GDP growth projections for 2026. Recent Eurozone HICP inflation surging to 2.5% in March from 1.9%, fueled by energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, alongside ECB President Lagarde's March 25 remarks opening the door to hikes even for short-lived pressures, has lifted increase odds to 23.4%. Manufacturing PMI rising to a 45-month high of 51.6 in early April signals input cost jumps but no imminent cuts, keeping decrease probabilities near zero.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volumen
$282,577Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.6% implied probability of no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 29-30 Governing Council meeting, driven by the bank's data-dependent approach following its March 19 decision to hold the deposit rate at 2% amid modest 0.9% euro area GDP growth projections for 2026. Recent Eurozone HICP inflation surging to 2.5% in March from 1.9%, fueled by energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, alongside ECB President Lagarde's March 25 remarks opening the door to hikes even for short-lived pressures, has lifted increase odds to 23.4%. Manufacturing PMI rising to a 45-month high of 51.6 in early April signals input cost jumps but no imminent cuts, keeping decrease probabilities near zero.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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