Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have sharply raised euro-area energy prices, pushing ECB staff inflation projections to 2.6% for 2026 and prompting Governing Council members, including Bundesbank President Nagel, to signal a data-dependent pivot toward tighter policy after holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00% in April. Markets and professional forecasters now price at least one or two 25-basis-point hikes this year, with June the most likely first move, reflecting upside risks to price stability that outweigh growth concerns. This combination of elevated inflation expectations and explicit forward guidance from multiple policymakers underpins the near-certain trader consensus on a rate increase occurring sometime in 2026. A rapid easing of energy supply disruptions or markedly weaker incoming data on growth and core inflation remain the main realistic scenarios that could still shift the trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Subida de tipos del BCE en 2026?
¿Subida de tipos del BCE en 2026?
Sí
$124,184 Vol.
$124,184 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$124,184 Vol.
$124,184 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have sharply raised euro-area energy prices, pushing ECB staff inflation projections to 2.6% for 2026 and prompting Governing Council members, including Bundesbank President Nagel, to signal a data-dependent pivot toward tighter policy after holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00% in April. Markets and professional forecasters now price at least one or two 25-basis-point hikes this year, with June the most likely first move, reflecting upside risks to price stability that outweigh growth concerns. This combination of elevated inflation expectations and explicit forward guidance from multiple policymakers underpins the near-certain trader consensus on a rate increase occurring sometime in 2026. A rapid easing of energy supply disruptions or markedly weaker incoming data on growth and core inflation remain the main realistic scenarios that could still shift the trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volumen
$124,184Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have sharply raised euro-area energy prices, pushing ECB staff inflation projections to 2.6% for 2026 and prompting Governing Council members, including Bundesbank President Nagel, to signal a data-dependent pivot toward tighter policy after holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00% in April. Markets and professional forecasters now price at least one or two 25-basis-point hikes this year, with June the most likely first move, reflecting upside risks to price stability that outweigh growth concerns. This combination of elevated inflation expectations and explicit forward guidance from multiple policymakers underpins the near-certain trader consensus on a rate increase occurring sometime in 2026. A rapid easing of energy supply disruptions or markedly weaker incoming data on growth and core inflation remain the main realistic scenarios that could still shift the trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$124,184Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have sharply raised euro-area energy prices, pushing ECB staff inflation projections to 2.6% for 2026 and prompting Governing Council members, including Bundesbank President Nagel, to signal a data-dependent pivot toward tighter policy after holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00% in April. Markets and professional forecasters now price at least one or two 25-basis-point hikes this year, with June the most likely first move, reflecting upside risks to price stability that outweigh growth concerns. This combination of elevated inflation expectations and explicit forward guidance from multiple policymakers underpins the near-certain trader consensus on a rate increase occurring sometime in 2026. A rapid easing of energy supply disruptions or markedly weaker incoming data on growth and core inflation remain the main realistic scenarios that could still shift the trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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