Recent Middle East tensions and associated energy price shocks have prompted the European Central Bank to revise its 2026 euro-area inflation projections upward, with headline and core measures now seen near or above 2.6 percent. The Governing Council held the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00 percent after its April meeting while highlighting intensified upside risks to price stability and adopting a explicitly data-dependent stance. Money-market pricing and economist surveys now embed expectations for at least one 25-basis-point hike by mid-year, with some forecasts pointing to two increases overall. This outlook underpins the 93.5 percent implied probability that at least one rate hike will occur in 2026, though a swift de-escalation in regional conflicts or sharper growth slowdown could still alter the path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Subida de tipos del BCE en 2026?
¿Subida de tipos del BCE en 2026?
Sí
$115,349 Vol.
$115,349 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$115,349 Vol.
$115,349 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East tensions and associated energy price shocks have prompted the European Central Bank to revise its 2026 euro-area inflation projections upward, with headline and core measures now seen near or above 2.6 percent. The Governing Council held the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00 percent after its April meeting while highlighting intensified upside risks to price stability and adopting a explicitly data-dependent stance. Money-market pricing and economist surveys now embed expectations for at least one 25-basis-point hike by mid-year, with some forecasts pointing to two increases overall. This outlook underpins the 93.5 percent implied probability that at least one rate hike will occur in 2026, though a swift de-escalation in regional conflicts or sharper growth slowdown could still alter the path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volumen
$115,349Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East tensions and associated energy price shocks have prompted the European Central Bank to revise its 2026 euro-area inflation projections upward, with headline and core measures now seen near or above 2.6 percent. The Governing Council held the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00 percent after its April meeting while highlighting intensified upside risks to price stability and adopting a explicitly data-dependent stance. Money-market pricing and economist surveys now embed expectations for at least one 25-basis-point hike by mid-year, with some forecasts pointing to two increases overall. This outlook underpins the 93.5 percent implied probability that at least one rate hike will occur in 2026, though a swift de-escalation in regional conflicts or sharper growth slowdown could still alter the path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$115,349Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Middle East tensions and associated energy price shocks have prompted the European Central Bank to revise its 2026 euro-area inflation projections upward, with headline and core measures now seen near or above 2.6 percent. The Governing Council held the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00 percent after its April meeting while highlighting intensified upside risks to price stability and adopting a explicitly data-dependent stance. Money-market pricing and economist surveys now embed expectations for at least one 25-basis-point hike by mid-year, with some forecasts pointing to two increases overall. This outlook underpins the 93.5 percent implied probability that at least one rate hike will occur in 2026, though a swift de-escalation in regional conflicts or sharper growth slowdown could still alter the path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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