Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price surges have elevated euro-area inflation risks, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit rate steady at 2.00% after the April 30 meeting while signaling data-dependent vigilance on second-round effects. Traders assign a 92% implied probability to at least one rate hike in 2026, reflecting upward revisions to 2026 HICP forecasts, resilient labor markets, and expectations that the Governing Council will tighten if price pressures persist beyond its baseline. Market pricing for near-term meetings shows strong odds of a June increase, with further moves possible later in the year. Outcomes remain contingent on incoming inflation readings, commodity trends, and wage developments, as the ECB has not pre-committed to any path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Subida de tipos del BCE en 2026?
¿Subida de tipos del BCE en 2026?
Sí
$116,222 Vol.
$116,222 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$116,222 Vol.
$116,222 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price surges have elevated euro-area inflation risks, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit rate steady at 2.00% after the April 30 meeting while signaling data-dependent vigilance on second-round effects. Traders assign a 92% implied probability to at least one rate hike in 2026, reflecting upward revisions to 2026 HICP forecasts, resilient labor markets, and expectations that the Governing Council will tighten if price pressures persist beyond its baseline. Market pricing for near-term meetings shows strong odds of a June increase, with further moves possible later in the year. Outcomes remain contingent on incoming inflation readings, commodity trends, and wage developments, as the ECB has not pre-committed to any path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volumen
$116,222Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price surges have elevated euro-area inflation risks, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit rate steady at 2.00% after the April 30 meeting while signaling data-dependent vigilance on second-round effects. Traders assign a 92% implied probability to at least one rate hike in 2026, reflecting upward revisions to 2026 HICP forecasts, resilient labor markets, and expectations that the Governing Council will tighten if price pressures persist beyond its baseline. Market pricing for near-term meetings shows strong odds of a June increase, with further moves possible later in the year. Outcomes remain contingent on incoming inflation readings, commodity trends, and wage developments, as the ECB has not pre-committed to any path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$116,222Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price surges have elevated euro-area inflation risks, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit rate steady at 2.00% after the April 30 meeting while signaling data-dependent vigilance on second-round effects. Traders assign a 92% implied probability to at least one rate hike in 2026, reflecting upward revisions to 2026 HICP forecasts, resilient labor markets, and expectations that the Governing Council will tighten if price pressures persist beyond its baseline. Market pricing for near-term meetings shows strong odds of a June increase, with further moves possible later in the year. Outcomes remain contingent on incoming inflation readings, commodity trends, and wage developments, as the ECB has not pre-committed to any path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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