Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price surges have sharply elevated euro-area inflation forecasts for 2026, with professional forecasters now projecting headline HICP near 2.7% and prompting widespread expectations of ECB tightening. The Governing Council held rates steady at its April 30 meeting with the deposit facility at 2.00%, but explicitly flagged intensified upside risks and signaled readiness for data-dependent action at upcoming sessions, including June. Economist surveys and futures markets have shifted to price in at least two 25-basis-point hikes this year, reflecting concerns over persistent price pressures and the need to anchor expectations. This geopolitical catalyst underpins the 93% trader-implied probability of a 2026 rate increase.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Subida de tipos del BCE en 2026?
¿Subida de tipos del BCE en 2026?
Sí
$116,293 Vol.
$116,293 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$116,293 Vol.
$116,293 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price surges have sharply elevated euro-area inflation forecasts for 2026, with professional forecasters now projecting headline HICP near 2.7% and prompting widespread expectations of ECB tightening. The Governing Council held rates steady at its April 30 meeting with the deposit facility at 2.00%, but explicitly flagged intensified upside risks and signaled readiness for data-dependent action at upcoming sessions, including June. Economist surveys and futures markets have shifted to price in at least two 25-basis-point hikes this year, reflecting concerns over persistent price pressures and the need to anchor expectations. This geopolitical catalyst underpins the 93% trader-implied probability of a 2026 rate increase.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volumen
$116,293Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price surges have sharply elevated euro-area inflation forecasts for 2026, with professional forecasters now projecting headline HICP near 2.7% and prompting widespread expectations of ECB tightening. The Governing Council held rates steady at its April 30 meeting with the deposit facility at 2.00%, but explicitly flagged intensified upside risks and signaled readiness for data-dependent action at upcoming sessions, including June. Economist surveys and futures markets have shifted to price in at least two 25-basis-point hikes this year, reflecting concerns over persistent price pressures and the need to anchor expectations. This geopolitical catalyst underpins the 93% trader-implied probability of a 2026 rate increase.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$116,293Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price surges have sharply elevated euro-area inflation forecasts for 2026, with professional forecasters now projecting headline HICP near 2.7% and prompting widespread expectations of ECB tightening. The Governing Council held rates steady at its April 30 meeting with the deposit facility at 2.00%, but explicitly flagged intensified upside risks and signaled readiness for data-dependent action at upcoming sessions, including June. Economist surveys and futures markets have shifted to price in at least two 25-basis-point hikes this year, reflecting concerns over persistent price pressures and the need to anchor expectations. This geopolitical catalyst underpins the 93% trader-implied probability of a 2026 rate increase.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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