Elevated euro-area inflation projections, recently revised upward amid energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have driven Governing Council members to signal a data-dependent shift toward tighter policy. With the deposit facility rate held at 2.00% through April and incoming data showing persistent price pressures, officials including Bundesbank President Nagel have highlighted the potential for a June move if projections fail to improve. Forward guidance and professional forecaster surveys now price at least one or two 25-basis-point increases this year, aligning with market-implied expectations. Trader consensus on a rate hike occurring in 2026 reflects this combination of verified inflation risks and explicit policy signals, though a rapid de-escalation in energy supply disruptions or materially softer growth and core inflation readings could still shift the trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Subida de tipos del BCE en 2026?
¿Subida de tipos del BCE en 2026?
Sí
$124,614 Vol.
$124,614 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$124,614 Vol.
$124,614 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation projections, recently revised upward amid energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have driven Governing Council members to signal a data-dependent shift toward tighter policy. With the deposit facility rate held at 2.00% through April and incoming data showing persistent price pressures, officials including Bundesbank President Nagel have highlighted the potential for a June move if projections fail to improve. Forward guidance and professional forecaster surveys now price at least one or two 25-basis-point increases this year, aligning with market-implied expectations. Trader consensus on a rate hike occurring in 2026 reflects this combination of verified inflation risks and explicit policy signals, though a rapid de-escalation in energy supply disruptions or materially softer growth and core inflation readings could still shift the trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volumen
$124,614Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation projections, recently revised upward amid energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have driven Governing Council members to signal a data-dependent shift toward tighter policy. With the deposit facility rate held at 2.00% through April and incoming data showing persistent price pressures, officials including Bundesbank President Nagel have highlighted the potential for a June move if projections fail to improve. Forward guidance and professional forecaster surveys now price at least one or two 25-basis-point increases this year, aligning with market-implied expectations. Trader consensus on a rate hike occurring in 2026 reflects this combination of verified inflation risks and explicit policy signals, though a rapid de-escalation in energy supply disruptions or materially softer growth and core inflation readings could still shift the trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$124,614Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated euro-area inflation projections, recently revised upward amid energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have driven Governing Council members to signal a data-dependent shift toward tighter policy. With the deposit facility rate held at 2.00% through April and incoming data showing persistent price pressures, officials including Bundesbank President Nagel have highlighted the potential for a June move if projections fail to improve. Forward guidance and professional forecaster surveys now price at least one or two 25-basis-point increases this year, aligning with market-implied expectations. Trader consensus on a rate hike occurring in 2026 reflects this combination of verified inflation risks and explicit policy signals, though a rapid de-escalation in energy supply disruptions or materially softer growth and core inflation readings could still shift the trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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