Recent Middle East conflict disruptions, including oil price spikes from the Strait of Hormuz, have sharply raised euro-area inflation forecasts for 2026 to around 2.6-2.7%, well above the ECB’s 2% target. The Governing Council left its deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.00% following its April 30 meeting but highlighted intensified upside risks and adopted a data-dependent stance, opening the door for tightening at upcoming sessions such as June. Professional forecaster surveys and futures markets have shifted to price in at least one 25-basis-point hike this year, with some expecting two, reflecting concerns over persistent price pressures and the need to anchor expectations. This geopolitical catalyst underpins the 94% trader-implied probability of an ECB rate hike occurring in 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Subida de tipos del BCE en 2026?
¿Subida de tipos del BCE en 2026?
Sí
$116,293 Vol.
$116,293 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$116,293 Vol.
$116,293 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East conflict disruptions, including oil price spikes from the Strait of Hormuz, have sharply raised euro-area inflation forecasts for 2026 to around 2.6-2.7%, well above the ECB’s 2% target. The Governing Council left its deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.00% following its April 30 meeting but highlighted intensified upside risks and adopted a data-dependent stance, opening the door for tightening at upcoming sessions such as June. Professional forecaster surveys and futures markets have shifted to price in at least one 25-basis-point hike this year, with some expecting two, reflecting concerns over persistent price pressures and the need to anchor expectations. This geopolitical catalyst underpins the 94% trader-implied probability of an ECB rate hike occurring in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volumen
$116,293Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East conflict disruptions, including oil price spikes from the Strait of Hormuz, have sharply raised euro-area inflation forecasts for 2026 to around 2.6-2.7%, well above the ECB’s 2% target. The Governing Council left its deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.00% following its April 30 meeting but highlighted intensified upside risks and adopted a data-dependent stance, opening the door for tightening at upcoming sessions such as June. Professional forecaster surveys and futures markets have shifted to price in at least one 25-basis-point hike this year, with some expecting two, reflecting concerns over persistent price pressures and the need to anchor expectations. This geopolitical catalyst underpins the 94% trader-implied probability of an ECB rate hike occurring in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$116,293Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Middle East conflict disruptions, including oil price spikes from the Strait of Hormuz, have sharply raised euro-area inflation forecasts for 2026 to around 2.6-2.7%, well above the ECB’s 2% target. The Governing Council left its deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.00% following its April 30 meeting but highlighted intensified upside risks and adopted a data-dependent stance, opening the door for tightening at upcoming sessions such as June. Professional forecaster surveys and futures markets have shifted to price in at least one 25-basis-point hike this year, with some expecting two, reflecting concerns over persistent price pressures and the need to anchor expectations. This geopolitical catalyst underpins the 94% trader-implied probability of an ECB rate hike occurring in 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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