The ECB's March 19 Governing Council decision to hold key interest rates unchanged, alongside an upward revision of its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9% due to elevated energy costs from the Iran war, drives the 82% trader consensus for no rate cut. A Reuters poll of March 25 confirms most economists expect steady rates through 2026 amid persistent inflation risks, with Eurozone headline inflation unexpectedly rising to 1.9% in February. ECB President Lagarde's March 25 remarks signaling potential hikes if the inflation surge endures, combined with banks like Goldman Sachs forecasting April and June increases, reflect hawkish forward guidance and market pricing out cuts in response to geopolitical energy shocks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$20,528 Vol.
$20,528 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$20,528 Vol.
$20,528 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ECB's March 19 Governing Council decision to hold key interest rates unchanged, alongside an upward revision of its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9% due to elevated energy costs from the Iran war, drives the 82% trader consensus for no rate cut. A Reuters poll of March 25 confirms most economists expect steady rates through 2026 amid persistent inflation risks, with Eurozone headline inflation unexpectedly rising to 1.9% in February. ECB President Lagarde's March 25 remarks signaling potential hikes if the inflation surge endures, combined with banks like Goldman Sachs forecasting April and June increases, reflect hawkish forward guidance and market pricing out cuts in response to geopolitical energy shocks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volumen
$20,528Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ECB's March 19 Governing Council decision to hold key interest rates unchanged, alongside an upward revision of its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9% due to elevated energy costs from the Iran war, drives the 82% trader consensus for no rate cut. A Reuters poll of March 25 confirms most economists expect steady rates through 2026 amid persistent inflation risks, with Eurozone headline inflation unexpectedly rising to 1.9% in February. ECB President Lagarde's March 25 remarks signaling potential hikes if the inflation surge endures, combined with banks like Goldman Sachs forecasting April and June increases, reflect hawkish forward guidance and market pricing out cuts in response to geopolitical energy shocks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$20,528Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ECB's March 19 Governing Council decision to hold key interest rates unchanged, alongside an upward revision of its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9% due to elevated energy costs from the Iran war, drives the 82% trader consensus for no rate cut. A Reuters poll of March 25 confirms most economists expect steady rates through 2026 amid persistent inflation risks, with Eurozone headline inflation unexpectedly rising to 1.9% in February. ECB President Lagarde's March 25 remarks signaling potential hikes if the inflation surge endures, combined with banks like Goldman Sachs forecasting April and June increases, reflect hawkish forward guidance and market pricing out cuts in response to geopolitical energy shocks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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