Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including energy price spikes tied to Iran-related developments, have elevated euro-area inflation and prompted the ECB Governing Council to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent through recent meetings while shifting toward a data-dependent stance open to tightening. Updated inflation projections for 2026 have been revised higher, with economist surveys and market pricing now assigning strong odds to at least one 25-basis-point hike, most likely in June, amid resilient labor markets and firmer core readings. This environment underpins the trader consensus against any rate cut by year-end, though rapid de-escalation lowering energy costs or softer-than-expected data could still alter the path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$28,250 Vol.
$28,250 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$28,250 Vol.
$28,250 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including energy price spikes tied to Iran-related developments, have elevated euro-area inflation and prompted the ECB Governing Council to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent through recent meetings while shifting toward a data-dependent stance open to tightening. Updated inflation projections for 2026 have been revised higher, with economist surveys and market pricing now assigning strong odds to at least one 25-basis-point hike, most likely in June, amid resilient labor markets and firmer core readings. This environment underpins the trader consensus against any rate cut by year-end, though rapid de-escalation lowering energy costs or softer-than-expected data could still alter the path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volumen
$28,250Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including energy price spikes tied to Iran-related developments, have elevated euro-area inflation and prompted the ECB Governing Council to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent through recent meetings while shifting toward a data-dependent stance open to tightening. Updated inflation projections for 2026 have been revised higher, with economist surveys and market pricing now assigning strong odds to at least one 25-basis-point hike, most likely in June, amid resilient labor markets and firmer core readings. This environment underpins the trader consensus against any rate cut by year-end, though rapid de-escalation lowering energy costs or softer-than-expected data could still alter the path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$28,250Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including energy price spikes tied to Iran-related developments, have elevated euro-area inflation and prompted the ECB Governing Council to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent through recent meetings while shifting toward a data-dependent stance open to tightening. Updated inflation projections for 2026 have been revised higher, with economist surveys and market pricing now assigning strong odds to at least one 25-basis-point hike, most likely in June, amid resilient labor markets and firmer core readings. This environment underpins the trader consensus against any rate cut by year-end, though rapid de-escalation lowering energy costs or softer-than-expected data could still alter the path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes