**Strong trader consensus for no change at the Bank of Japan’s July 30–31 meeting reflects the widely expected 25 basis point hike at the June 15–16 gathering, which would lift the policy rate to 1.0 percent from the current 0.75 percent level.** Persistent inflation pressures from higher energy costs tied to Middle East tensions, a weak yen, and resilient first-quarter GDP growth have prompted faster policy normalization, consistent with Governor Ueda’s recent hawkish commentary and Reuters economist polls showing broad support for the June move. With rates already at their highest since 1995 after the anticipated adjustment, the market-implied odds assign only an 8.5 percent probability to another 25 basis point increase in July. A sharper-than-expected economic slowdown or escalation in geopolitical risks could still alter the path, though such scenarios remain low-probability tail risks given the current data trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNo change 92%
25 bps increase 9%
50+ bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 jul 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
92%
25 bps increase
9%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 92%
25 bps increase 9%
50+ bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 jul 2026
50+ bps decrease
$1,385 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$1,456 Vol.
<1%
No change
$1,106 Vol.
92%
25 bps increase
$1,355 Vol.
9%
50+ bps increase
$1,135 Vol.
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Strong trader consensus for no change at the Bank of Japan’s July 30–31 meeting reflects the widely expected 25 basis point hike at the June 15–16 gathering, which would lift the policy rate to 1.0 percent from the current 0.75 percent level.** Persistent inflation pressures from higher energy costs tied to Middle East tensions, a weak yen, and resilient first-quarter GDP growth have prompted faster policy normalization, consistent with Governor Ueda’s recent hawkish commentary and Reuters economist polls showing broad support for the June move. With rates already at their highest since 1995 after the anticipated adjustment, the market-implied odds assign only an 8.5 percent probability to another 25 basis point increase in July. A sharper-than-expected economic slowdown or escalation in geopolitical risks could still alter the path, though such scenarios remain low-probability tail risks given the current data trajectory.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volumen
$6,437Fecha de finalización
31 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Strong trader consensus for no change at the Bank of Japan’s July 30–31 meeting reflects the widely expected 25 basis point hike at the June 15–16 gathering, which would lift the policy rate to 1.0 percent from the current 0.75 percent level.** Persistent inflation pressures from higher energy costs tied to Middle East tensions, a weak yen, and resilient first-quarter GDP growth have prompted faster policy normalization, consistent with Governor Ueda’s recent hawkish commentary and Reuters economist polls showing broad support for the June move. With rates already at their highest since 1995 after the anticipated adjustment, the market-implied odds assign only an 8.5 percent probability to another 25 basis point increase in July. A sharper-than-expected economic slowdown or escalation in geopolitical risks could still alter the path, though such scenarios remain low-probability tail risks given the current data trajectory.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$6,437Fecha de finalización
31 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong trader consensus for no change at the Bank of Japan’s July 30–31 meeting reflects the widely expected 25 basis point hike at the June 15–16 gathering, which would lift the policy rate to 1.0 percent from the current 0.75 percent level.** Persistent inflation pressures from higher energy costs tied to Middle East tensions, a weak yen, and resilient first-quarter GDP growth have prompted faster policy normalization, consistent with Governor Ueda’s recent hawkish commentary and Reuters economist polls showing broad support for the June move. With rates already at their highest since 1995 after the anticipated adjustment, the market-implied odds assign only an 8.5 percent probability to another 25 basis point increase in July. A sharper-than-expected economic slowdown or escalation in geopolitical risks could still alter the path, though such scenarios remain low-probability tail risks given the current data trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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