Germany's Q2 2026 GDP growth odds reflect subdued momentum amid geopolitical energy shocks and policy shifts. The Iran conflict has elevated oil and gas prices, lifting May inflation to 2.6% after a 2.9% April peak and pressuring household spending and corporate margins, while Q1's 0.3% QoQ expansion sets a low base. Fiscal easing under the revised debt framework and higher defense outlays provide counter-support, though manufacturing orders and industrial output remain mixed. With full-year 2026 consensus forecasts clustered around 0.5-0.7% annual growth and Q2 flash data due in late July, traders see the 0.1-0.3% and sub-zero buckets as the key battleground, hinging on whether stimulus offsets external headwinds before summer data releases.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado1.3%+ 3.4%
≤0.0% 0
0.1-0.3% 0
0.4-0.6% 0
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jul 2026
≤0.0%
43%
0.1-0.3%
52%
0.4-0.6%
34%
0.7-0.9%
47%
1.0-1.2%
28%
1.3%+
3%
1.3%+ 3.4%
≤0.0% 0
0.1-0.3% 0
0.4-0.6% 0
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jul 2026
≤0.0%
$135 Vol.
43%
0.1-0.3%
$151 Vol.
52%
0.4-0.6%
$76 Vol.
34%
0.7-0.9%
$89 Vol.
47%
1.0-1.2%
$57 Vol.
28%
1.3%+
$76 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Germany's Q2 2026 GDP growth odds reflect subdued momentum amid geopolitical energy shocks and policy shifts. The Iran conflict has elevated oil and gas prices, lifting May inflation to 2.6% after a 2.9% April peak and pressuring household spending and corporate margins, while Q1's 0.3% QoQ expansion sets a low base. Fiscal easing under the revised debt framework and higher defense outlays provide counter-support, though manufacturing orders and industrial output remain mixed. With full-year 2026 consensus forecasts clustered around 0.5-0.7% annual growth and Q2 flash data due in late July, traders see the 0.1-0.3% and sub-zero buckets as the key battleground, hinging on whether stimulus offsets external headwinds before summer data releases.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ET
Volumen
$584Fecha de finalización
30 jul 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Germany's Q2 2026 GDP growth odds reflect subdued momentum amid geopolitical energy shocks and policy shifts. The Iran conflict has elevated oil and gas prices, lifting May inflation to 2.6% after a 2.9% April peak and pressuring household spending and corporate margins, while Q1's 0.3% QoQ expansion sets a low base. Fiscal easing under the revised debt framework and higher defense outlays provide counter-support, though manufacturing orders and industrial output remain mixed. With full-year 2026 consensus forecasts clustered around 0.5-0.7% annual growth and Q2 flash data due in late July, traders see the 0.1-0.3% and sub-zero buckets as the key battleground, hinging on whether stimulus offsets external headwinds before summer data releases.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$584Fecha de finalización
30 jul 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Germany's Q2 2026 GDP growth odds reflect subdued momentum amid geopolitical energy shocks and policy shifts. The Iran conflict has elevated oil and gas prices, lifting May inflation to 2.6% after a 2.9% April peak and pressuring household spending and corporate margins, while Q1's 0.3% QoQ expansion sets a low base. Fiscal easing under the revised debt framework and higher defense outlays provide counter-support, though manufacturing orders and industrial output remain mixed. With full-year 2026 consensus forecasts clustered around 0.5-0.7% annual growth and Q2 flash data due in late July, traders see the 0.1-0.3% and sub-zero buckets as the key battleground, hinging on whether stimulus offsets external headwinds before summer data releases.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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