Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth printed at a modest 1.6% annualized rate, reflecting softer consumer spending and investment revisions, while Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking points to a firmer 3.3% for Q2 as of early June. Professional forecasters, including the Philadelphia Fed survey, center expectations near 2.1% for the quarter amid an oil-price shock from Middle East tensions that is lifting inflation and weighing on real spending. With the Federal Reserve on hold and labor-market data showing steady unemployment near 4.4-4.5%, these crosscurrents keep market-implied odds clustered between 2.0% and 3.0%, where incremental data releases on retail sales, employment, and energy prices could readily shift probabilities among the closely matched central outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoUS GDP growth in Q2 2026?
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
2.0–2.5% 29%
2.5–3.0% 24%
≥3.5% 19%
3.0–3.5% 18%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jul 2026
<1.0%
2%
1.0–1.5%
10%
1.5–2.0%
17%
2.0–2.5%
29%
2.5–3.0%
24%
3.0–3.5%
18%
≥3.5%
19%
2.0–2.5% 29%
2.5–3.0% 24%
≥3.5% 19%
3.0–3.5% 18%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jul 2026
<1.0%
$1,105 Vol.
2%
1.0–1.5%
$729 Vol.
10%
1.5–2.0%
$743 Vol.
17%
2.0–2.5%
$1,241 Vol.
29%
2.5–3.0%
$789 Vol.
24%
3.0–3.5%
$887 Vol.
18%
≥3.5%
$948 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth printed at a modest 1.6% annualized rate, reflecting softer consumer spending and investment revisions, while Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking points to a firmer 3.3% for Q2 as of early June. Professional forecasters, including the Philadelphia Fed survey, center expectations near 2.1% for the quarter amid an oil-price shock from Middle East tensions that is lifting inflation and weighing on real spending. With the Federal Reserve on hold and labor-market data showing steady unemployment near 4.4-4.5%, these crosscurrents keep market-implied odds clustered between 2.0% and 3.0%, where incremental data releases on retail sales, employment, and energy prices could readily shift probabilities among the closely matched central outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Volumen
$6,441Fecha de finalización
30 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth printed at a modest 1.6% annualized rate, reflecting softer consumer spending and investment revisions, while Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking points to a firmer 3.3% for Q2 as of early June. Professional forecasters, including the Philadelphia Fed survey, center expectations near 2.1% for the quarter amid an oil-price shock from Middle East tensions that is lifting inflation and weighing on real spending. With the Federal Reserve on hold and labor-market data showing steady unemployment near 4.4-4.5%, these crosscurrents keep market-implied odds clustered between 2.0% and 3.0%, where incremental data releases on retail sales, employment, and energy prices could readily shift probabilities among the closely matched central outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volumen
$6,441Fecha de finalización
30 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth printed at a modest 1.6% annualized rate, reflecting softer consumer spending and investment revisions, while Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking points to a firmer 3.3% for Q2 as of early June. Professional forecasters, including the Philadelphia Fed survey, center expectations near 2.1% for the quarter amid an oil-price shock from Middle East tensions that is lifting inflation and weighing on real spending. With the Federal Reserve on hold and labor-market data showing steady unemployment near 4.4-4.5%, these crosscurrents keep market-implied odds clustered between 2.0% and 3.0%, where incremental data releases on retail sales, employment, and energy prices could readily shift probabilities among the closely matched central outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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