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Mundo·RBA

¿Decisión del Banco de la Reserva de Australia en junio?

icon for ¿Decisión del Banco de la Reserva de Australia en junio?
Mundo·RBA

¿Decisión del Banco de la Reserva de Australia en junio?

jun 16

jun 16

Sin cambios 83%

Aumento 18%

Disminuir 2.4%

Polymarket

$21,378 Vol.

Sin cambios 83%

Aumento 18%

Disminuir 2.4%

Polymarket

$21,378 Vol.

Disminuir

$6,835 Vol.

2%

Sin cambios

$7,242 Vol.

83%

Aumento

$7,301 Vol.

18%

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Polymarket traders price an 83% implied probability of no change in the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate target at the June 15-16 meeting, following the Board's third 25 basis point hike to 4.35% on May 5 amid sticky inflation reaching 4.6% year-on-year through March 2026 and fuel price surges from Middle East tensions. This strong consensus for a pause reflects assessment of cumulative tightening effects on demand and capacity pressures, with the labor market remaining tight at 4.3% unemployment. Hike odds at 18.5%—aligned with ASX futures implying a 17% chance of rising to 4.60%—account for upside risks from second-round price effects, while cut probabilities near 2% find no traction. Upcoming April employment data and Q2 inflation indicators will shape sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html

This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
Volumen
$21,378
Fecha de finalización
16 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Polymarket traders price an 83% implied probability of no change in the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate target at the June 15-16 meeting, following the Board's third 25 basis point hike to 4.35% on May 5 amid sticky inflation reaching 4.6% year-on-year through March 2026 and fuel price surges from Middle East tensions. This strong consensus for a pause reflects assessment of cumulative tightening effects on demand and capacity pressures, with the labor market remaining tight at 4.3% unemployment. Hike odds at 18.5%—aligned with ASX futures implying a 17% chance of rising to 4.60%—account for upside risks from second-round price effects, while cut probabilities near 2% find no traction. Upcoming April employment data and Q2 inflation indicators will shape sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html

This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
Volumen
$21,378
Fecha de finalización
16 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Decisión del Banco de la Reserva de Australia en junio?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 3 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Sin cambios" con 83%, seguido de "Aumento" con 18%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 83¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 83% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Decisión del Banco de la Reserva de Australia en junio?" ha generado $21.4K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 19, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Decisión del Banco de la Reserva de Australia en junio?", explora los 3 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Decisión del Banco de la Reserva de Australia en junio?" es "Sin cambios" con 83%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 83% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Aumento" con 18%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Decisión del Banco de la Reserva de Australia en junio?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.