High-level US-Cuba negotiations intensified with a US State Department delegation's historic visit to Havana last week—the first official US flight since Obama's era—urging economic reforms, political prisoner releases, asset compensation for US claims since 1959, and free elections to potentially end the embargo. Cuba's deepening energy crisis from Trump's oil blockade via Venezuela sanctions has prompted openness to investments and dialogue, but defiance against leadership changes stalls progress. Traders reflect this in a 33% implied probability for a qualifying economic deal (sanctions relief, trade easing, or embargo adjustments) by June 30, viewing diplomatic window amid pressure as outweighing near-term barriers like political preconditions, with April 30 at just 4%. Escalation risks and no firm deadlines loom.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Acuerdo económico EEUU x Cuba por...?
¿Acuerdo económico EEUU x Cuba por...?
$128,193 Vol.
30 jun 2026
30 de abril
7%
30 de junio
37%
$128,193 Vol.
30 de abril
$70,995 Vol.
7%
30 de junio
$57,198 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
Only deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.High-level US-Cuba negotiations intensified with a US State Department delegation's historic visit to Havana last week—the first official US flight since Obama's era—urging economic reforms, political prisoner releases, asset compensation for US claims since 1959, and free elections to potentially end the embargo. Cuba's deepening energy crisis from Trump's oil blockade via Venezuela sanctions has prompted openness to investments and dialogue, but defiance against leadership changes stalls progress. Traders reflect this in a 33% implied probability for a qualifying economic deal (sanctions relief, trade easing, or embargo adjustments) by June 30, viewing diplomatic window amid pressure as outweighing near-term barriers like political preconditions, with April 30 at just 4%. Escalation risks and no firm deadlines loom.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
Only deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
Only deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado abierto: Mar 13, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volumen
$128,193Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 13, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
Only deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.High-level US-Cuba negotiations intensified with a US State Department delegation's historic visit to Havana last week—the first official US flight since Obama's era—urging economic reforms, political prisoner releases, asset compensation for US claims since 1959, and free elections to potentially end the embargo. Cuba's deepening energy crisis from Trump's oil blockade via Venezuela sanctions has prompted openness to investments and dialogue, but defiance against leadership changes stalls progress. Traders reflect this in a 33% implied probability for a qualifying economic deal (sanctions relief, trade easing, or embargo adjustments) by June 30, viewing diplomatic window amid pressure as outweighing near-term barriers like political preconditions, with April 30 at just 4%. Escalation risks and no firm deadlines loom.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
Only deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
Only deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$128,193Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 13, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...High-level US-Cuba negotiations intensified with a US State Department delegation's historic visit to Havana last week—the first official US flight since Obama's era—urging economic reforms, political prisoner releases, asset compensation for US claims since 1959, and free elections to potentially end the embargo. Cuba's deepening energy crisis from Trump's oil blockade via Venezuela sanctions has prompted openness to investments and dialogue, but defiance against leadership changes stalls progress. Traders reflect this in a 33% implied probability for a qualifying economic deal (sanctions relief, trade easing, or embargo adjustments) by June 30, viewing diplomatic window amid pressure as outweighing near-term barriers like political preconditions, with April 30 at just 4%. Escalation risks and no firm deadlines loom.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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