Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a March 2026 CPI year-over-year rate of ≥2.8% at 98.5% implied probability, driven by elevated nowcasts from the Cleveland Fed (3.02% as of March 19) and Bloomberg trackers projecting headline monthly CPI at 0.76-0.96%, far exceeding street estimates near 0.3%. February's flat 2.4% annual reading provides a low base for favorable year-over-year math, amplified by recent energy price gains and sticky shelter costs. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects aggregated trader capital betting on persistent inflation momentum amid resilient labor markets. Realistic challenges include a surprisingly soft monthly print or upward revisions to prior data, potentially capping the annual figure below 2.8%, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics release slated for April 10.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado≥2,8% 98.5%
2,7% <1%
2,6% <1%
≤2.0% <1%
$2,946,705 Vol.
$2,946,705 Vol.
10 abr 2026
≤2.0%
<1%
2,1%
<1%
2,2%
<1%
2,3%
<1%
2,4%
<1%
2,5%
<1%
2,6%
<1%
2,7%
1%
≥2,8%
99%
≥2,8% 98.5%
2,7% <1%
2,6% <1%
≤2.0% <1%
$2,946,705 Vol.
$2,946,705 Vol.
10 abr 2026
≤2.0%
$159,399 Vol.
<1%
2,1%
$84,538 Vol.
<1%
2,2%
$66,941 Vol.
<1%
2,3%
$198,175 Vol.
<1%
2,4%
$174,543 Vol.
<1%
2,5%
$170,789 Vol.
<1%
2,6%
$145,831 Vol.
<1%
2,7%
$146,886 Vol.
1%
≥2,8%
$1,799,603 Vol.
99%
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a March 2026 CPI year-over-year rate of ≥2.8% at 98.5% implied probability, driven by elevated nowcasts from the Cleveland Fed (3.02% as of March 19) and Bloomberg trackers projecting headline monthly CPI at 0.76-0.96%, far exceeding street estimates near 0.3%. February's flat 2.4% annual reading provides a low base for favorable year-over-year math, amplified by recent energy price gains and sticky shelter costs. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects aggregated trader capital betting on persistent inflation momentum amid resilient labor markets. Realistic challenges include a surprisingly soft monthly print or upward revisions to prior data, potentially capping the annual figure below 2.8%, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics release slated for April 10.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercado abierto: Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Volumen
$2,946,705Fecha de finalización
10 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a March 2026 CPI year-over-year rate of ≥2.8% at 98.5% implied probability, driven by elevated nowcasts from the Cleveland Fed (3.02% as of March 19) and Bloomberg trackers projecting headline monthly CPI at 0.76-0.96%, far exceeding street estimates near 0.3%. February's flat 2.4% annual reading provides a low base for favorable year-over-year math, amplified by recent energy price gains and sticky shelter costs. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects aggregated trader capital betting on persistent inflation momentum amid resilient labor markets. Realistic challenges include a surprisingly soft monthly print or upward revisions to prior data, potentially capping the annual figure below 2.8%, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics release slated for April 10.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volumen
$2,946,705Fecha de finalización
10 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a March 2026 CPI year-over-year rate of ≥2.8% at 98.5% implied probability, driven by elevated nowcasts from the Cleveland Fed (3.02% as of March 19) and Bloomberg trackers projecting headline monthly CPI at 0.76-0.96%, far exceeding street estimates near 0.3%. February's flat 2.4% annual reading provides a low base for favorable year-over-year math, amplified by recent energy price gains and sticky shelter costs. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects aggregated trader capital betting on persistent inflation momentum amid resilient labor markets. Realistic challenges include a surprisingly soft monthly print or upward revisions to prior data, potentially capping the annual figure below 2.8%, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics release slated for April 10.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes