Polymarket traders, wagering millions, price a 98.3% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI annual inflation at ≥2.8%, reflecting consensus for a sharp uptick from February's 2.4% print amid surging energy costs driven by the Iran conflict's oil supply disruptions. Gasoline prices jumped from around $3 to $3.80 per gallon, poised to add ~0.8 percentage points to the monthly headline figure, compounded by sticky shelter inflation near 3.0% year-over-year and accelerating core goods pressures in tech categories. The FOMC's March 18 projections raised 2026 core PCE inflation to 2.7%, signaling stalled disinflation. Realistic challenges include rapid de-escalation reopening supply routes or outsized offsets from declining food and lodging costs ahead of the April 10 release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado≥2,8% 98.3%
2,7% <1%
2,6% <1%
≤2.0% <1%
$2,939,178 Vol.
$2,939,178 Vol.
Apr 10, 2026
≤2.0%
<1%
2,1%
<1%
2,2%
<1%
2,3%
<1%
2,4%
<1%
2,5%
<1%
2,6%
<1%
2,7%
1%
≥2,8%
98%
≥2,8% 98.3%
2,7% <1%
2,6% <1%
≤2.0% <1%
$2,939,178 Vol.
$2,939,178 Vol.
Apr 10, 2026
≤2.0%
$158,595 Vol.
<1%
2,1%
$84,246 Vol.
<1%
2,2%
$66,649 Vol.
<1%
2,3%
$198,029 Vol.
<1%
2,4%
$171,595 Vol.
<1%
2,5%
$170,497 Vol.
<1%
2,6%
$145,539 Vol.
<1%
2,7%
$146,594 Vol.
1%
≥2,8%
$1,797,434 Vol.
98%
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Polymarket traders, wagering millions, price a 98.3% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI annual inflation at ≥2.8%, reflecting consensus for a sharp uptick from February's 2.4% print amid surging energy costs driven by the Iran conflict's oil supply disruptions. Gasoline prices jumped from around $3 to $3.80 per gallon, poised to add ~0.8 percentage points to the monthly headline figure, compounded by sticky shelter inflation near 3.0% year-over-year and accelerating core goods pressures in tech categories. The FOMC's March 18 projections raised 2026 core PCE inflation to 2.7%, signaling stalled disinflation. Realistic challenges include rapid de-escalation reopening supply routes or outsized offsets from declining food and lodging costs ahead of the April 10 release.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercado abierto: Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Volumen
$2,939,178Fecha de finalización
Apr 10, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Polymarket traders, wagering millions, price a 98.3% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI annual inflation at ≥2.8%, reflecting consensus for a sharp uptick from February's 2.4% print amid surging energy costs driven by the Iran conflict's oil supply disruptions. Gasoline prices jumped from around $3 to $3.80 per gallon, poised to add ~0.8 percentage points to the monthly headline figure, compounded by sticky shelter inflation near 3.0% year-over-year and accelerating core goods pressures in tech categories. The FOMC's March 18 projections raised 2026 core PCE inflation to 2.7%, signaling stalled disinflation. Realistic challenges include rapid de-escalation reopening supply routes or outsized offsets from declining food and lodging costs ahead of the April 10 release.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volumen
$2,939,178Fecha de finalización
Apr 10, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders, wagering millions, price a 98.3% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI annual inflation at ≥2.8%, reflecting consensus for a sharp uptick from February's 2.4% print amid surging energy costs driven by the Iran conflict's oil supply disruptions. Gasoline prices jumped from around $3 to $3.80 per gallon, poised to add ~0.8 percentage points to the monthly headline figure, compounded by sticky shelter inflation near 3.0% year-over-year and accelerating core goods pressures in tech categories. The FOMC's March 18 projections raised 2026 core PCE inflation to 2.7%, signaling stalled disinflation. Realistic challenges include rapid de-escalation reopening supply routes or outsized offsets from declining food and lodging costs ahead of the April 10 release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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