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Economía·Indicadores Macro

¿La carne molida llegará a __ en 2026?

icon for ¿La carne molida llegará a __ en 2026?
Economía·Indicadores Macro

¿La carne molida llegará a __ en 2026?

$18,687 Vol.

31 dic 2026
Polymarket

$18,687 Vol.

Polymarket

$7.000+

$50 Vol.

78%

$8.000+

$1,504 Vol.

44%

$9.000+

$22 Vol.

38%

$10.000+

$17,111 Vol.

16%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Tight cattle inventories and contracting beef production are fueling elevated ground beef prices, with U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data showing the average retail price for 100% ground beef at $6.90 per pound in April 2026, up nearly 3% from March and over 20% year-over-year. USDA's latest outlook forecasts 10-18% beef price inflation for 2026 amid a 2% drop in total production to around 25.5 billion pounds, driven by January's all-cattle inventory of 86.2 million head—down 0.4% from 2025—and persistent beef cow herd liquidation at 27.6 million. Strong consumer demand and limited imports exacerbate supply constraints; traders eye upcoming May CPI release on May 15 and quarterly USDA Cattle report in July for signals on peak pricing before potential 2027 relief.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.

The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$18,687
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 3, 2026, 11:10 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Tight cattle inventories and contracting beef production are fueling elevated ground beef prices, with U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data showing the average retail price for 100% ground beef at $6.90 per pound in April 2026, up nearly 3% from March and over 20% year-over-year. USDA's latest outlook forecasts 10-18% beef price inflation for 2026 amid a 2% drop in total production to around 25.5 billion pounds, driven by January's all-cattle inventory of 86.2 million head—down 0.4% from 2025—and persistent beef cow herd liquidation at 27.6 million. Strong consumer demand and limited imports exacerbate supply constraints; traders eye upcoming May CPI release on May 15 and quarterly USDA Cattle report in July for signals on peak pricing before potential 2027 relief.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.

The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$18,687
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 3, 2026, 11:10 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿La carne molida llegará a __ en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 4 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "$7.000+" con 78%, seguido de "$8.000+" con 44%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 78¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 78% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿La carne molida llegará a __ en 2026?" ha generado $18.7K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Apr 3, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿La carne molida llegará a __ en 2026?", explora los 4 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿La carne molida llegará a __ en 2026?" es "$7.000+" con 78%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 78% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "$8.000+" con 44%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿La carne molida llegará a __ en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.