Polymarket traders' consensus prices Mexico's 2026 annual inflation near 4.4%, with implied probabilities tightly split at 38.5% for 4.00%-4.49% and 34.0% for 4.50%-4.99%, mirroring Banxico's May economist survey median of 4.38%—up from April's 4.22% amid prior acceleration. April's headline CPI eased to 4.45% year-over-year from March's 4.59% peak, driven by base effects and energy subsidies, prompting Banxico's split 25 basis-point cut to 6.50% on May 7, signaling easing cycle's end despite persistent core pressures above the 3% target. Competitive dynamics hinge on core inflation trajectory versus favorable seasonality; upside risks from wage growth and peso volatility could favor higher bins, while sustained disinflation supports the lower leader. Watch May CPI data due mid-June for resolution signals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado4.50% a 4.99% 34%
5.00% a 5.49% 18.3%
3.50% a 3.99% 16.2%
5.50%+ 10%
$41,179 Vol.
$41,179 Vol.
8 ene 2027
<2.50%
5%
2.50% a 2.99%
<1%
3.00% a 3.49%
7%
3.50% a 3.99%
9%
4.00% a 4.49%
39%
4.50% a 4.99%
34%
5.00% a 5.49%
18%
5.50%+
10%
4.50% a 4.99% 34%
5.00% a 5.49% 18.3%
3.50% a 3.99% 16.2%
5.50%+ 10%
$41,179 Vol.
$41,179 Vol.
8 ene 2027
<2.50%
$494 Vol.
5%
2.50% a 2.99%
$4,120 Vol.
<1%
3.00% a 3.49%
$25,948 Vol.
7%
3.50% a 3.99%
$396 Vol.
9%
4.00% a 4.49%
$493 Vol.
39%
4.50% a 4.99%
$3,533 Vol.
34%
5.00% a 5.49%
$1,175 Vol.
18%
5.50%+
$5,020 Vol.
10%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioPolymarket traders' consensus prices Mexico's 2026 annual inflation near 4.4%, with implied probabilities tightly split at 38.5% for 4.00%-4.49% and 34.0% for 4.50%-4.99%, mirroring Banxico's May economist survey median of 4.38%—up from April's 4.22% amid prior acceleration. April's headline CPI eased to 4.45% year-over-year from March's 4.59% peak, driven by base effects and energy subsidies, prompting Banxico's split 25 basis-point cut to 6.50% on May 7, signaling easing cycle's end despite persistent core pressures above the 3% target. Competitive dynamics hinge on core inflation trajectory versus favorable seasonality; upside risks from wage growth and peso volatility could favor higher bins, while sustained disinflation supports the lower leader. Watch May CPI data due mid-June for resolution signals.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Mercado abierto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volumen
$41,179Fecha de finalización
8 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioPolymarket traders' consensus prices Mexico's 2026 annual inflation near 4.4%, with implied probabilities tightly split at 38.5% for 4.00%-4.49% and 34.0% for 4.50%-4.99%, mirroring Banxico's May economist survey median of 4.38%—up from April's 4.22% amid prior acceleration. April's headline CPI eased to 4.45% year-over-year from March's 4.59% peak, driven by base effects and energy subsidies, prompting Banxico's split 25 basis-point cut to 6.50% on May 7, signaling easing cycle's end despite persistent core pressures above the 3% target. Competitive dynamics hinge on core inflation trajectory versus favorable seasonality; upside risks from wage growth and peso volatility could favor higher bins, while sustained disinflation supports the lower leader. Watch May CPI data due mid-June for resolution signals.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volumen
$41,179Fecha de finalización
8 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' consensus prices Mexico's 2026 annual inflation near 4.4%, with implied probabilities tightly split at 38.5% for 4.00%-4.49% and 34.0% for 4.50%-4.99%, mirroring Banxico's May economist survey median of 4.38%—up from April's 4.22% amid prior acceleration. April's headline CPI eased to 4.45% year-over-year from March's 4.59% peak, driven by base effects and energy subsidies, prompting Banxico's split 25 basis-point cut to 6.50% on May 7, signaling easing cycle's end despite persistent core pressures above the 3% target. Competitive dynamics hinge on core inflation trajectory versus favorable seasonality; upside risks from wage growth and peso volatility could favor higher bins, while sustained disinflation supports the lower leader. Watch May CPI data due mid-June for resolution signals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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