The closely matched Polymarket odds around 1.0-1.5% and sub-zero ranges for Mexico’s Q2 2026 GDP growth stem primarily from the economy’s weak Q1 start, with a 0.6% quarter-over-quarter contraction and just 0.2% year-over-year expansion that has weighed on momentum. High-frequency indicators through May point to subdued services and industrial output, prompting Banxico to cut its full-year 2026 forecast to 1.1% from 1.6% while external risks from the impending USMCA review and U.S. tariff policy add downside pressure. Offsetting factors include resilient U.S. demand, gradual consumption recovery, and analyst consensus for a modest rebound that keeps implied probabilities clustered in the low-single-digit zone rather than favoring outright contraction or stronger expansion above 2%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
2.5%+ 18%
1.5-2.0% 14%
<-0,5% 0
-0.5-0.0% 0
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jul 2026
<-0,5%
-
-0.5-0.0%
49%
0.0-0.5%
38%
0.5-1.0%
44%
1.0-1.5%
47%
1.5-2.0%
14%
2.0-2.5%
40%
2.5%+
18%
2.5%+ 18%
1.5-2.0% 14%
<-0,5% 0
-0.5-0.0% 0
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jul 2026
<-0,5%
$34 Vol.
-
-0.5-0.0%
$54 Vol.
49%
0.0-0.5%
$223 Vol.
38%
0.5-1.0%
$70 Vol.
44%
1.0-1.5%
$32 Vol.
47%
1.5-2.0%
$30 Vol.
14%
2.0-2.5%
$51 Vol.
40%
2.5%+
$30 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.The closely matched Polymarket odds around 1.0-1.5% and sub-zero ranges for Mexico’s Q2 2026 GDP growth stem primarily from the economy’s weak Q1 start, with a 0.6% quarter-over-quarter contraction and just 0.2% year-over-year expansion that has weighed on momentum. High-frequency indicators through May point to subdued services and industrial output, prompting Banxico to cut its full-year 2026 forecast to 1.1% from 1.6% while external risks from the impending USMCA review and U.S. tariff policy add downside pressure. Offsetting factors include resilient U.S. demand, gradual consumption recovery, and analyst consensus for a modest rebound that keeps implied probabilities clustered in the low-single-digit zone rather than favoring outright contraction or stronger expansion above 2%.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Volumen
$525Fecha de finalización
30 jul 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.The closely matched Polymarket odds around 1.0-1.5% and sub-zero ranges for Mexico’s Q2 2026 GDP growth stem primarily from the economy’s weak Q1 start, with a 0.6% quarter-over-quarter contraction and just 0.2% year-over-year expansion that has weighed on momentum. High-frequency indicators through May point to subdued services and industrial output, prompting Banxico to cut its full-year 2026 forecast to 1.1% from 1.6% while external risks from the impending USMCA review and U.S. tariff policy add downside pressure. Offsetting factors include resilient U.S. demand, gradual consumption recovery, and analyst consensus for a modest rebound that keeps implied probabilities clustered in the low-single-digit zone rather than favoring outright contraction or stronger expansion above 2%.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$525Fecha de finalización
30 jul 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched Polymarket odds around 1.0-1.5% and sub-zero ranges for Mexico’s Q2 2026 GDP growth stem primarily from the economy’s weak Q1 start, with a 0.6% quarter-over-quarter contraction and just 0.2% year-over-year expansion that has weighed on momentum. High-frequency indicators through May point to subdued services and industrial output, prompting Banxico to cut its full-year 2026 forecast to 1.1% from 1.6% while external risks from the impending USMCA review and U.S. tariff policy add downside pressure. Offsetting factors include resilient U.S. demand, gradual consumption recovery, and analyst consensus for a modest rebound that keeps implied probabilities clustered in the low-single-digit zone rather than favoring outright contraction or stronger expansion above 2%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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