China's National People's Congress set the official 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5%-5% during the March Two Sessions, the lowest in over three decades, anchoring trader consensus at 71.5% odds for 4.0-5.0% as forecasts from IMF, World Bank, Goldman Sachs, and UBS cluster around 4.5%. Persistent property sector weakness, with sales declining sharply into early 2026 and high inventory levels dragging domestic demand, offsets stimulus measures including a 4% budget deficit and 1.3 trillion yuan in special debt issuance. While exports surged in 2025, anticipated tariff pressures and slowing global demand temper upside risks, leaving 5.0-6.0% at 26.3% amid uncertainty over consumption rebound and fiscal efficacy.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado4.0–5.0% 72%
5,0–6,0% 25.9%
6,0-7,0% 2.4%
3,0–4,0 % 1.3%
$194,719 Vol.
$194,719 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1,0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
1%
2,0–3,0%
1%
3,0–4,0 %
1%
4.0–5.0%
72%
5,0–6,0%
26%
6,0-7,0%
2%
7,0–8,0 %
1%
8,0–9,0%
1%
9,0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 72%
5,0–6,0% 25.9%
6,0-7,0% 2.4%
3,0–4,0 % 1.3%
$194,719 Vol.
$194,719 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1,0%
$16,584 Vol.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$26,112 Vol.
1%
2,0–3,0%
$5,292 Vol.
1%
3,0–4,0 %
$6,025 Vol.
1%
4.0–5.0%
$10,532 Vol.
72%
5,0–6,0%
$10,931 Vol.
26%
6,0-7,0%
$17,864 Vol.
2%
7,0–8,0 %
$28,057 Vol.
1%
8,0–9,0%
$5,589 Vol.
1%
9,0%+
$67,733 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's National People's Congress set the official 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5%-5% during the March Two Sessions, the lowest in over three decades, anchoring trader consensus at 71.5% odds for 4.0-5.0% as forecasts from IMF, World Bank, Goldman Sachs, and UBS cluster around 4.5%. Persistent property sector weakness, with sales declining sharply into early 2026 and high inventory levels dragging domestic demand, offsets stimulus measures including a 4% budget deficit and 1.3 trillion yuan in special debt issuance. While exports surged in 2025, anticipated tariff pressures and slowing global demand temper upside risks, leaving 5.0-6.0% at 26.3% amid uncertainty over consumption rebound and fiscal efficacy.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volumen
$194,719Fecha de finalización
Jan 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's National People's Congress set the official 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5%-5% during the March Two Sessions, the lowest in over three decades, anchoring trader consensus at 71.5% odds for 4.0-5.0% as forecasts from IMF, World Bank, Goldman Sachs, and UBS cluster around 4.5%. Persistent property sector weakness, with sales declining sharply into early 2026 and high inventory levels dragging domestic demand, offsets stimulus measures including a 4% budget deficit and 1.3 trillion yuan in special debt issuance. While exports surged in 2025, anticipated tariff pressures and slowing global demand temper upside risks, leaving 5.0-6.0% at 26.3% amid uncertainty over consumption rebound and fiscal efficacy.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$194,719Fecha de finalización
Jan 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's National People's Congress set the official 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5%-5% during the March Two Sessions, the lowest in over three decades, anchoring trader consensus at 71.5% odds for 4.0-5.0% as forecasts from IMF, World Bank, Goldman Sachs, and UBS cluster around 4.5%. Persistent property sector weakness, with sales declining sharply into early 2026 and high inventory levels dragging domestic demand, offsets stimulus measures including a 4% budget deficit and 1.3 trillion yuan in special debt issuance. While exports surged in 2025, anticipated tariff pressures and slowing global demand temper upside risks, leaving 5.0-6.0% at 26.3% amid uncertainty over consumption rebound and fiscal efficacy.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes