Polymarket traders price South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth as a tight contest, with 0.5–0.9% (32%) edging 1.5–1.9% (31.5%), reflecting mixed signals from robust semiconductor exports offsetting weak domestic demand. Q4 2025 GDP contracted 0.2% quarter-on-quarter (revised upward from -0.3%), dragged by construction and private consumption, while full-year 2025 growth hit just 1.0%. Recent strength in February manufacturing PMI (51.1, third month of expansion) and nine straight months of export gains—fueled by AI-driven chip demand—bolster higher bins, aligning with Bank of Korea's upgraded 2026 forecast to 2.0%. Key swing factors include March industrial production and retail data ahead of Q1 preliminary release in late April.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Crecimiento del PIB de Corea del Sur en el primer trimestre de 2026?
¿Crecimiento del PIB de Corea del Sur en el primer trimestre de 2026?
2,0–2,4% 31%
2,5%+ 22%
1,0–1,4% 19.7%
0.0–0.4% 4.7%
NEW
NEW
Apr 23, 2026
<0%
15%
0.0–0.4%
5%
0,5–0,9%
30%
1,0–1,4%
20%
1,5–1,9%
32%
2,0–2,4%
25%
2,5%+
22%
2,0–2,4% 31%
2,5%+ 22%
1,0–1,4% 19.7%
0.0–0.4% 4.7%
NEW
NEW
Apr 23, 2026
<0%
$0 Vol.
15%
0.0–0.4%
$0 Vol.
5%
0,5–0,9%
$0 Vol.
30%
1,0–1,4%
$0 Vol.
20%
1,5–1,9%
$267 Vol.
32%
2,0–2,4%
$0 Vol.
25%
2,5%+
$6,175 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Polymarket traders price South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth as a tight contest, with 0.5–0.9% (32%) edging 1.5–1.9% (31.5%), reflecting mixed signals from robust semiconductor exports offsetting weak domestic demand. Q4 2025 GDP contracted 0.2% quarter-on-quarter (revised upward from -0.3%), dragged by construction and private consumption, while full-year 2025 growth hit just 1.0%. Recent strength in February manufacturing PMI (51.1, third month of expansion) and nine straight months of export gains—fueled by AI-driven chip demand—bolster higher bins, aligning with Bank of Korea's upgraded 2026 forecast to 2.0%. Key swing factors include March industrial production and retail data ahead of Q1 preliminary release in late April.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Mercado abierto: Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volumen
$6,442Fecha de finalización
Apr 23, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Polymarket traders price South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth as a tight contest, with 0.5–0.9% (32%) edging 1.5–1.9% (31.5%), reflecting mixed signals from robust semiconductor exports offsetting weak domestic demand. Q4 2025 GDP contracted 0.2% quarter-on-quarter (revised upward from -0.3%), dragged by construction and private consumption, while full-year 2025 growth hit just 1.0%. Recent strength in February manufacturing PMI (51.1, third month of expansion) and nine straight months of export gains—fueled by AI-driven chip demand—bolster higher bins, aligning with Bank of Korea's upgraded 2026 forecast to 2.0%. Key swing factors include March industrial production and retail data ahead of Q1 preliminary release in late April.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Volumen
$6,442Fecha de finalización
Apr 23, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth as a tight contest, with 0.5–0.9% (32%) edging 1.5–1.9% (31.5%), reflecting mixed signals from robust semiconductor exports offsetting weak domestic demand. Q4 2025 GDP contracted 0.2% quarter-on-quarter (revised upward from -0.3%), dragged by construction and private consumption, while full-year 2025 growth hit just 1.0%. Recent strength in February manufacturing PMI (51.1, third month of expansion) and nine straight months of export gains—fueled by AI-driven chip demand—bolster higher bins, aligning with Bank of Korea's upgraded 2026 forecast to 2.0%. Key swing factors include March industrial production and retail data ahead of Q1 preliminary release in late April.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes