Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 41% implied probability to Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.6–0.8% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualized rate, driven by mixed monthly indicators signaling moderation after Q4 2025's upwardly revised 0.3% qoq expansion fueled by robust business investment. February retail sales contracted 0.2% year-over-year, missing forecasts amid subdued consumer spending despite wage gains, while industrial production fell 2.1% month-on-month following January's surge; Tokyo CPI cooled to 1.7% in March, easing inflation pressures. Bank of Japan projections and economist nowcasts like JCER's 1.48% cluster around modest expansion, tempered by yen volatility and global trade risks. Preliminary GDP data due mid-May could shift sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado0,6–0,8% 51%
-0,3– -0,1% 32%
1,2%+ 20.5%
0,3–0,5% 16.4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
19 may 2026
≤-0.4%
1%
-0,3– -0,1%
22%
0.0–0.2%
13%
0,3–0,5%
16%
0,6–0,8%
51%
0,9–1,1%
19%
1,2%+
21%
0,6–0,8% 51%
-0,3– -0,1% 32%
1,2%+ 20.5%
0,3–0,5% 16.4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
19 may 2026
≤-0.4%
$185 Vol.
1%
-0,3– -0,1%
$139 Vol.
22%
0.0–0.2%
$127 Vol.
13%
0,3–0,5%
$96 Vol.
16%
0,6–0,8%
$129 Vol.
51%
0,9–1,1%
$119 Vol.
19%
1,2%+
$605 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 41% implied probability to Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.6–0.8% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualized rate, driven by mixed monthly indicators signaling moderation after Q4 2025's upwardly revised 0.3% qoq expansion fueled by robust business investment. February retail sales contracted 0.2% year-over-year, missing forecasts amid subdued consumer spending despite wage gains, while industrial production fell 2.1% month-on-month following January's surge; Tokyo CPI cooled to 1.7% in March, easing inflation pressures. Bank of Japan projections and economist nowcasts like JCER's 1.48% cluster around modest expansion, tempered by yen volatility and global trade risks. Preliminary GDP data due mid-May could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Mercado abierto: Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volumen
$1,401Fecha de finalización
19 may 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 41% implied probability to Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.6–0.8% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualized rate, driven by mixed monthly indicators signaling moderation after Q4 2025's upwardly revised 0.3% qoq expansion fueled by robust business investment. February retail sales contracted 0.2% year-over-year, missing forecasts amid subdued consumer spending despite wage gains, while industrial production fell 2.1% month-on-month following January's surge; Tokyo CPI cooled to 1.7% in March, easing inflation pressures. Bank of Japan projections and economist nowcasts like JCER's 1.48% cluster around modest expansion, tempered by yen volatility and global trade risks. Preliminary GDP data due mid-May could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volumen
$1,401Fecha de finalización
19 may 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 41% implied probability to Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.6–0.8% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualized rate, driven by mixed monthly indicators signaling moderation after Q4 2025's upwardly revised 0.3% qoq expansion fueled by robust business investment. February retail sales contracted 0.2% year-over-year, missing forecasts amid subdued consumer spending despite wage gains, while industrial production fell 2.1% month-on-month following January's surge; Tokyo CPI cooled to 1.7% in March, easing inflation pressures. Bank of Japan projections and economist nowcasts like JCER's 1.48% cluster around modest expansion, tempered by yen volatility and global trade risks. Preliminary GDP data due mid-May could shift sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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