Polymarket traders price Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth as a tight contest, with 0.6–0.8% holding a slim 37.5% implied probability over 1.2%+ at 33.5%, reflecting uncertainty after Q2 2024's 0.5% annualized contraction—worse than expected amid weak private consumption and scandal-hit auto production. Bank of Japan FY2026 baseline around 0.9% supports modest recovery via wage gains (3.7% shunto hikes) and capex rebound, but September Tankan survey's dismal manufacturing sentiment (12 vs. 14 forecast) signals downside risks from yen strength and fading stimulus. Key differentiators include Q3 GDP release in November and BOJ's October 31 meeting, where rate hike signals could boost higher-bins or validate caution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado0,6–0,8% 35%
1,2%+ 34%
0.0–0.2% 27%
0,3–0,5% 26%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
25%
-0,3– -0,1%
24%
0.0–0.2%
27%
0,3–0,5%
26%
0,6–0,8%
35%
0,9–1,1%
26%
1,2%+
34%
0,6–0,8% 35%
1,2%+ 34%
0.0–0.2% 27%
0,3–0,5% 26%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
$0 Vol.
25%
-0,3– -0,1%
$0 Vol.
24%
0.0–0.2%
$0 Vol.
27%
0,3–0,5%
$0 Vol.
26%
0,6–0,8%
$7 Vol.
35%
0,9–1,1%
$0 Vol.
26%
1,2%+
$0 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlPolymarket traders price Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth as a tight contest, with 0.6–0.8% holding a slim 37.5% implied probability over 1.2%+ at 33.5%, reflecting uncertainty after Q2 2024's 0.5% annualized contraction—worse than expected amid weak private consumption and scandal-hit auto production. Bank of Japan FY2026 baseline around 0.9% supports modest recovery via wage gains (3.7% shunto hikes) and capex rebound, but September Tankan survey's dismal manufacturing sentiment (12 vs. 14 forecast) signals downside risks from yen strength and fading stimulus. Key differentiators include Q3 GDP release in November and BOJ's October 31 meeting, where rate hike signals could boost higher-bins or validate caution.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Mercado abierto: Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volumen
$7Fecha de finalización
May 19, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlPolymarket traders price Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth as a tight contest, with 0.6–0.8% holding a slim 37.5% implied probability over 1.2%+ at 33.5%, reflecting uncertainty after Q2 2024's 0.5% annualized contraction—worse than expected amid weak private consumption and scandal-hit auto production. Bank of Japan FY2026 baseline around 0.9% supports modest recovery via wage gains (3.7% shunto hikes) and capex rebound, but September Tankan survey's dismal manufacturing sentiment (12 vs. 14 forecast) signals downside risks from yen strength and fading stimulus. Key differentiators include Q3 GDP release in November and BOJ's October 31 meeting, where rate hike signals could boost higher-bins or validate caution.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volumen
$7Fecha de finalización
May 19, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth as a tight contest, with 0.6–0.8% holding a slim 37.5% implied probability over 1.2%+ at 33.5%, reflecting uncertainty after Q2 2024's 0.5% annualized contraction—worse than expected amid weak private consumption and scandal-hit auto production. Bank of Japan FY2026 baseline around 0.9% supports modest recovery via wage gains (3.7% shunto hikes) and capex rebound, but September Tankan survey's dismal manufacturing sentiment (12 vs. 14 forecast) signals downside risks from yen strength and fading stimulus. Key differentiators include Q3 GDP release in November and BOJ's October 31 meeting, where rate hike signals could boost higher-bins or validate caution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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