Recent IMF projections anchor trader sentiment for 2026 global GDP growth, with the April World Economic Outlook forecasting 3.1 percent amid Middle East conflict risks, elevated energy prices, and trade policy uncertainty that prompted a downgrade from the January 3.3 percent estimate. Private forecasts from S&P Global and the World Bank sit lower at 2.2–2.6 percent, underscoring downside risks from geopolitical fragmentation and slowing trade. The closely matched 39.5 percent implied probability on 3.2 percent versus 36.1 percent on 3.0 percent, alongside 32.0 percent on ≤2.9 percent, reflects debate over whether resilient U.S. and emerging-market momentum will offset these headwinds or if further shocks will push outcomes lower ahead of additional data releases and policy updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado2026 Crecimiento del PIB mundial
2026 Crecimiento del PIB mundial
3,0% 39.1%
3,1% 38.7%
≤2,9% 18%
3,3% 11.3%
$17,702 Vol.
$17,702 Vol.
15 ene 2027
≤2,9%
38%
3,0%
39%
3,1%
39%
3,2%
33%
3,3%
11%
3,4%
7%
3,5 %
4%
3,6%
4%
3,7% o más
4%
3,0% 39.1%
3,1% 38.7%
≤2,9% 18%
3,3% 11.3%
$17,702 Vol.
$17,702 Vol.
15 ene 2027
≤2,9%
$3,766 Vol.
38%
3,0%
$481 Vol.
39%
3,1%
$470 Vol.
39%
3,2%
$1,691 Vol.
33%
3,3%
$3,423 Vol.
11%
3,4%
$3,533 Vol.
7%
3,5 %
$3,100 Vol.
4%
3,6%
$452 Vol.
4%
3,7% o más
$787 Vol.
4%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent IMF projections anchor trader sentiment for 2026 global GDP growth, with the April World Economic Outlook forecasting 3.1 percent amid Middle East conflict risks, elevated energy prices, and trade policy uncertainty that prompted a downgrade from the January 3.3 percent estimate. Private forecasts from S&P Global and the World Bank sit lower at 2.2–2.6 percent, underscoring downside risks from geopolitical fragmentation and slowing trade. The closely matched 39.5 percent implied probability on 3.2 percent versus 36.1 percent on 3.0 percent, alongside 32.0 percent on ≤2.9 percent, reflects debate over whether resilient U.S. and emerging-market momentum will offset these headwinds or if further shocks will push outcomes lower ahead of additional data releases and policy updates.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
Volumen
$17,702Fecha de finalización
15 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent IMF projections anchor trader sentiment for 2026 global GDP growth, with the April World Economic Outlook forecasting 3.1 percent amid Middle East conflict risks, elevated energy prices, and trade policy uncertainty that prompted a downgrade from the January 3.3 percent estimate. Private forecasts from S&P Global and the World Bank sit lower at 2.2–2.6 percent, underscoring downside risks from geopolitical fragmentation and slowing trade. The closely matched 39.5 percent implied probability on 3.2 percent versus 36.1 percent on 3.0 percent, alongside 32.0 percent on ≤2.9 percent, reflects debate over whether resilient U.S. and emerging-market momentum will offset these headwinds or if further shocks will push outcomes lower ahead of additional data releases and policy updates.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$17,702Fecha de finalización
15 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent IMF projections anchor trader sentiment for 2026 global GDP growth, with the April World Economic Outlook forecasting 3.1 percent amid Middle East conflict risks, elevated energy prices, and trade policy uncertainty that prompted a downgrade from the January 3.3 percent estimate. Private forecasts from S&P Global and the World Bank sit lower at 2.2–2.6 percent, underscoring downside risks from geopolitical fragmentation and slowing trade. The closely matched 39.5 percent implied probability on 3.2 percent versus 36.1 percent on 3.0 percent, alongside 32.0 percent on ≤2.9 percent, reflects debate over whether resilient U.S. and emerging-market momentum will offset these headwinds or if further shocks will push outcomes lower ahead of additional data releases and policy updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes