Polymarket traders price 2026 world GDP growth as a tight contest, with ≤2.9% leading at 42.5% implied probability ahead of 3.3% at 36%, reflecting OECD's March interim report projecting exactly 2.9% amid energy shocks from Middle East tensions and heightened geopolitical risks that have weakened the global outlook. This contrasts with IMF's January forecast of 3.3%, supported by technology investments, while recent downgrades by Fitch (2.4%) and others highlight downside pressures from moderating U.S. growth to around 2% and euro area stagnation near 0.8%. Key swing factors include April's IMF World Economic Outlook update, Q1 GDP flash estimates, and trade policy developments, underscoring prediction market consensus on sub-3% as base case amid resilient but divergent forces.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado2026 Crecimiento del PIB mundial
2026 Crecimiento del PIB mundial
≤2,9% 54%
3,3% 36.0%
3,0% 33.2%
3,2% 20.4%
$13,995 Vol.
$13,995 Vol.
Jan 15, 2027
≤2,9%
43%
3,0%
18%
3,1%
18%
3,2%
20%
3,3%
36%
3,4%
8%
3,5 %
7%
3,6%
13%
3,7% o más
15%
≤2,9% 54%
3,3% 36.0%
3,0% 33.2%
3,2% 20.4%
$13,995 Vol.
$13,995 Vol.
Jan 15, 2027
≤2,9%
$3,303 Vol.
43%
3,0%
$0 Vol.
18%
3,1%
$291 Vol.
18%
3,2%
$1,459 Vol.
20%
3,3%
$1,754 Vol.
36%
3,4%
$3,316 Vol.
8%
3,5 %
$2,891 Vol.
7%
3,6%
$346 Vol.
13%
3,7% o más
$635 Vol.
15%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders price 2026 world GDP growth as a tight contest, with ≤2.9% leading at 42.5% implied probability ahead of 3.3% at 36%, reflecting OECD's March interim report projecting exactly 2.9% amid energy shocks from Middle East tensions and heightened geopolitical risks that have weakened the global outlook. This contrasts with IMF's January forecast of 3.3%, supported by technology investments, while recent downgrades by Fitch (2.4%) and others highlight downside pressures from moderating U.S. growth to around 2% and euro area stagnation near 0.8%. Key swing factors include April's IMF World Economic Outlook update, Q1 GDP flash estimates, and trade policy developments, underscoring prediction market consensus on sub-3% as base case amid resilient but divergent forces.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
Volumen
$13,995Fecha de finalización
Jan 15, 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders price 2026 world GDP growth as a tight contest, with ≤2.9% leading at 42.5% implied probability ahead of 3.3% at 36%, reflecting OECD's March interim report projecting exactly 2.9% amid energy shocks from Middle East tensions and heightened geopolitical risks that have weakened the global outlook. This contrasts with IMF's January forecast of 3.3%, supported by technology investments, while recent downgrades by Fitch (2.4%) and others highlight downside pressures from moderating U.S. growth to around 2% and euro area stagnation near 0.8%. Key swing factors include April's IMF World Economic Outlook update, Q1 GDP flash estimates, and trade policy developments, underscoring prediction market consensus on sub-3% as base case amid resilient but divergent forces.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$13,995Fecha de finalización
Jan 15, 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price 2026 world GDP growth as a tight contest, with ≤2.9% leading at 42.5% implied probability ahead of 3.3% at 36%, reflecting OECD's March interim report projecting exactly 2.9% amid energy shocks from Middle East tensions and heightened geopolitical risks that have weakened the global outlook. This contrasts with IMF's January forecast of 3.3%, supported by technology investments, while recent downgrades by Fitch (2.4%) and others highlight downside pressures from moderating U.S. growth to around 2% and euro area stagnation near 0.8%. Key swing factors include April's IMF World Economic Outlook update, Q1 GDP flash estimates, and trade policy developments, underscoring prediction market consensus on sub-3% as base case amid resilient but divergent forces.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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