Polymarket traders assign a 32% implied probability to UK annual GDP growth below 0% in 2026—edging out 28% for 0-1%—highlighting razor-thin sentiment amid fiscal headwinds from Labour's October 30 Autumn Budget, which hiked employer National Insurance contributions by £25 billion annually and raised other taxes for £40 billion total consolidation. This fiscal drag overshadows Bank of England's November 7 rate cut to 4.75% and its baseline 1.6% 2026 growth projection, as softening consumer confidence, stagnant productivity, and Q2 GDP's modest 0.6% quarterly expansion fuel downside risks. Differentiating factors include labor market resilience versus persistent services inflation above 2%, with November 28 Q3 GDP data and February FOMC-equivalent BoE meeting as pivotal catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado0-1% 46%
<0 32%
1-2% 19%
3-4% 11.6%
NEW
NEW
Feb 12, 2027
<0
32%
0-1%
28%
1-2%
19%
2-3%
10%
3-4%
12%
4-5%
9%
5% o más
7%
0-1% 46%
<0 32%
1-2% 19%
3-4% 11.6%
NEW
NEW
Feb 12, 2027
<0
$229 Vol.
32%
0-1%
$248 Vol.
28%
1-2%
$205 Vol.
19%
2-3%
$206 Vol.
10%
3-4%
$193 Vol.
12%
4-5%
$283 Vol.
9%
5% o más
$220 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders assign a 32% implied probability to UK annual GDP growth below 0% in 2026—edging out 28% for 0-1%—highlighting razor-thin sentiment amid fiscal headwinds from Labour's October 30 Autumn Budget, which hiked employer National Insurance contributions by £25 billion annually and raised other taxes for £40 billion total consolidation. This fiscal drag overshadows Bank of England's November 7 rate cut to 4.75% and its baseline 1.6% 2026 growth projection, as softening consumer confidence, stagnant productivity, and Q2 GDP's modest 0.6% quarterly expansion fuel downside risks. Differentiating factors include labor market resilience versus persistent services inflation above 2%, with November 28 Q3 GDP data and February FOMC-equivalent BoE meeting as pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volumen
$1,584Fecha de finalización
Feb 12, 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders assign a 32% implied probability to UK annual GDP growth below 0% in 2026—edging out 28% for 0-1%—highlighting razor-thin sentiment amid fiscal headwinds from Labour's October 30 Autumn Budget, which hiked employer National Insurance contributions by £25 billion annually and raised other taxes for £40 billion total consolidation. This fiscal drag overshadows Bank of England's November 7 rate cut to 4.75% and its baseline 1.6% 2026 growth projection, as softening consumer confidence, stagnant productivity, and Q2 GDP's modest 0.6% quarterly expansion fuel downside risks. Differentiating factors include labor market resilience versus persistent services inflation above 2%, with November 28 Q3 GDP data and February FOMC-equivalent BoE meeting as pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,584Fecha de finalización
Feb 12, 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 32% implied probability to UK annual GDP growth below 0% in 2026—edging out 28% for 0-1%—highlighting razor-thin sentiment amid fiscal headwinds from Labour's October 30 Autumn Budget, which hiked employer National Insurance contributions by £25 billion annually and raised other taxes for £40 billion total consolidation. This fiscal drag overshadows Bank of England's November 7 rate cut to 4.75% and its baseline 1.6% 2026 growth projection, as softening consumer confidence, stagnant productivity, and Q2 GDP's modest 0.6% quarterly expansion fuel downside risks. Differentiating factors include labor market resilience versus persistent services inflation above 2%, with November 28 Q3 GDP data and February FOMC-equivalent BoE meeting as pivotal catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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