Polymarket traders' consensus assigns a 64.5% implied probability to China Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth in the 4.5-5.0% band, aligning closely with Beijing's official 2026 target of 4.5-5%—the lowest since the early 1990s—announced during the March Two Sessions amid property sector headwinds and global trade tensions. This positioning reflects robust January-February activity data released March 16, including 6.3% industrial production growth, a 1.8% fixed-asset investment rebound from contraction, and 2.8% retail sales expansion, signaling a strong quarterly start despite tepid consumer demand. The adjacent 5.0-5.5% outcome at 32.5% captures upside from manufacturing PMI expansion to 52.1 in February. Traders eye the early April Q1 GDP release and March PMI for potential shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado4,5-5,0% 65%
5,0-5,5% 33%
5,5-6,0% 2.3%
4,0-4,5% 1.3%
$194,490 Vol.
$194,490 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
<3,5%
<1%
3,5-4,0%
<1%
4,0-4,5%
1%
4,5-5,0%
65%
5,0-5,5%
33%
5,5-6,0%
2%
6,0%+
<1%
4,5-5,0% 65%
5,0-5,5% 33%
5,5-6,0% 2.3%
4,0-4,5% 1.3%
$194,490 Vol.
$194,490 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
<3,5%
$12,064 Vol.
<1%
3,5-4,0%
$49,411 Vol.
<1%
4,0-4,5%
$32,161 Vol.
1%
4,5-5,0%
$16,549 Vol.
65%
5,0-5,5%
$18,466 Vol.
33%
5,5-6,0%
$48,431 Vol.
2%
6,0%+
$17,407 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlPolymarket traders' consensus assigns a 64.5% implied probability to China Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth in the 4.5-5.0% band, aligning closely with Beijing's official 2026 target of 4.5-5%—the lowest since the early 1990s—announced during the March Two Sessions amid property sector headwinds and global trade tensions. This positioning reflects robust January-February activity data released March 16, including 6.3% industrial production growth, a 1.8% fixed-asset investment rebound from contraction, and 2.8% retail sales expansion, signaling a strong quarterly start despite tepid consumer demand. The adjacent 5.0-5.5% outcome at 32.5% captures upside from manufacturing PMI expansion to 52.1 in February. Traders eye the early April Q1 GDP release and March PMI for potential shifts.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Mercado abierto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ET
Volumen
$194,490Fecha de finalización
Apr 17, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlPolymarket traders' consensus assigns a 64.5% implied probability to China Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth in the 4.5-5.0% band, aligning closely with Beijing's official 2026 target of 4.5-5%—the lowest since the early 1990s—announced during the March Two Sessions amid property sector headwinds and global trade tensions. This positioning reflects robust January-February activity data released March 16, including 6.3% industrial production growth, a 1.8% fixed-asset investment rebound from contraction, and 2.8% retail sales expansion, signaling a strong quarterly start despite tepid consumer demand. The adjacent 5.0-5.5% outcome at 32.5% captures upside from manufacturing PMI expansion to 52.1 in February. Traders eye the early April Q1 GDP release and March PMI for potential shifts.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volumen
$194,490Fecha de finalización
Apr 17, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' consensus assigns a 64.5% implied probability to China Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth in the 4.5-5.0% band, aligning closely with Beijing's official 2026 target of 4.5-5%—the lowest since the early 1990s—announced during the March Two Sessions amid property sector headwinds and global trade tensions. This positioning reflects robust January-February activity data released March 16, including 6.3% industrial production growth, a 1.8% fixed-asset investment rebound from contraction, and 2.8% retail sales expansion, signaling a strong quarterly start despite tepid consumer demand. The adjacent 5.0-5.5% outcome at 32.5% captures upside from manufacturing PMI expansion to 52.1 in February. Traders eye the early April Q1 GDP release and March PMI for potential shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes