Market icon
Economía·Indicadores Macro

¿Crecimiento del PIB de EE. UU. en el primer trimestre de 2026

Market icon
Economía·Indicadores Macro

¿Crecimiento del PIB de EE. UU. en el primer trimestre de 2026

Apr 30

Jan 29, 2027

Apr 30

Jan 29, 2027

2.5–3.0% 19.8%

3,0–3,5% 19%

2,0–2,5% 16%

1,5–2,0% 13.4%

Polymarket

$198,407 Vol.

2.5–3.0% 19.8%

3,0–3,5% 19%

2,0–2,5% 16%

1,5–2,0% 13.4%

Polymarket

$198,407 Vol.

<1,0%

$21,184 Vol.

12%

1.0–1.5%

$4,589 Vol.

9%

1,5–2,0%

$13,701 Vol.

13%

2,0–2,5%

$30,651 Vol.

16%

2.5–3.0%

$13,545 Vol.

20%

3,0–3,5%

$45,860 Vol.

19%

≥3,5%

$68,878 Vol.

12%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Atlanta Fed GDPNow trimmed its Q1 2026 real GDP growth nowcast to 2.0% as of March 23, reflecting softer construction spending, housing starts, and wholesale trade data, down from peaks above 3% earlier in the quarter. Yet Polymarket trader consensus remains dispersed, with implied probabilities closely contested at 19.8% for 2.5–3.0% and 18.5% for 3.0–3.5%, buoyed by resilient consumer spending (PCE key driver), February industrial production up 0.2%, and ISM services PMI expansion to 56.1, offsetting February's 92,000 job losses and 4.4% unemployment. Key swing factors include March labor data and final Q1 inputs ahead of BEA's late-April advance estimate; FOMC median sees annual 2026 growth at 2.4%.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow trimmed its Q1 2026 real GDP growth nowcast to 2.0% as of March 23, reflecting softer construction spending, housing starts, and wholesale trade data, down from peaks above 3% earlier in the quarter. Yet Polymarket trader consensus remains dispersed, with implied probabilities closely contested at 19.8% for 2.5–3.0% and 18.5% for 3.0–3.5%, buoyed by resilient consumer spending (PCE key driver), February industrial production up 0.2%, and ISM services PMI expansion to 56.1, offsetting February's 92,000 job losses and 4.4% unemployment. Key swing factors include March labor data and final Q1 inputs ahead of BEA's late-April advance estimate; FOMC median sees annual 2026 growth at 2.4%.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Atlanta Fed GDPNow trimmed its Q1 2026 real GDP growth nowcast to 2.0% as of March 23, reflecting softer construction spending, housing starts, and wholesale trade data, down from peaks above 3% earlier in the quarter. Yet Polymarket trader consensus remains dispersed, with implied probabilities closely contested at 19.8% for 2.5–3.0% and 18.5% for 3.0–3.5%, buoyed by resilient consumer spending (PCE key driver), February industrial production up 0.2%, and ISM services PMI expansion to 56.1, offsetting February's 92,000 job losses and 4.4% unemployment. Key swing factors include March labor data and final Q1 inputs ahead of BEA's late-April advance estimate; FOMC median sees annual 2026 growth at 2.4%.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow trimmed its Q1 2026 real GDP growth nowcast to 2.0% as of March 23, reflecting softer construction spending, housing starts, and wholesale trade data, down from peaks above 3% earlier in the quarter. Yet Polymarket trader consensus remains dispersed, with implied probabilities closely contested at 19.8% for 2.5–3.0% and 18.5% for 3.0–3.5%, buoyed by resilient consumer spending (PCE key driver), February industrial production up 0.2%, and ISM services PMI expansion to 56.1, offsetting February's 92,000 job losses and 4.4% unemployment. Key swing factors include March labor data and final Q1 inputs ahead of BEA's late-April advance estimate; FOMC median sees annual 2026 growth at 2.4%.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Crecimiento del PIB de EE. UU. en el primer trimestre de 2026" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 7 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "2.5–3.0%" con 20%, seguido de "3,0–3,5%" con 19%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 20¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 20% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Crecimiento del PIB de EE. UU. en el primer trimestre de 2026" ha generado $198.4K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Dec 23, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Crecimiento del PIB de EE. UU. en el primer trimestre de 2026", explora los 7 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Crecimiento del PIB de EE. UU. en el primer trimestre de 2026" es "2.5–3.0%" con 20%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 20% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "3,0–3,5%" con 19%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Crecimiento del PIB de EE. UU. en el primer trimestre de 2026" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.