Polymarket traders show no dominant consensus for US Q1 2026 GDP growth, with market-implied probabilities tightly clustered at 18.5% each for the 2.5–3.0% and 3.0–3.5% bins, reflecting competing forces amid the Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast of 2.0% as of March 23—down from 2.7% earlier due to softer consumer spending and private investment data. Downward revisions to Q4 2025 GDP growth at 0.7% annualized (March 13 BEA release) signal momentum loss, offset by resilient weekly jobless claims near 210,000 and FOMC's median 2026 GDP projection of 2.4%. Key swing factors include the March nonfarm payrolls report due April 4, which could shift the April 1 GDPNow update ahead of the advance estimate on April 30.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Crecimiento del PIB de EE. UU. en el primer trimestre de 2026
¿Crecimiento del PIB de EE. UU. en el primer trimestre de 2026
2.5–3.0% 18.5%
3,0–3,5% 19%
2,0–2,5% 15%
≥3,5% 14%
$197,707 Vol.
$197,707 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
<1,0%
12%
1.0–1.5%
11%
1,5–2,0%
13%
2,0–2,5%
15%
2.5–3.0%
19%
3,0–3,5%
19%
≥3,5%
14%
2.5–3.0% 18.5%
3,0–3,5% 19%
2,0–2,5% 15%
≥3,5% 14%
$197,707 Vol.
$197,707 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
<1,0%
$21,133 Vol.
12%
1.0–1.5%
$4,469 Vol.
11%
1,5–2,0%
$13,576 Vol.
13%
2,0–2,5%
$30,624 Vol.
15%
2.5–3.0%
$13,352 Vol.
19%
3,0–3,5%
$45,860 Vol.
19%
≥3,5%
$68,692 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Polymarket traders show no dominant consensus for US Q1 2026 GDP growth, with market-implied probabilities tightly clustered at 18.5% each for the 2.5–3.0% and 3.0–3.5% bins, reflecting competing forces amid the Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast of 2.0% as of March 23—down from 2.7% earlier due to softer consumer spending and private investment data. Downward revisions to Q4 2025 GDP growth at 0.7% annualized (March 13 BEA release) signal momentum loss, offset by resilient weekly jobless claims near 210,000 and FOMC's median 2026 GDP projection of 2.4%. Key swing factors include the March nonfarm payrolls report due April 4, which could shift the April 1 GDPNow update ahead of the advance estimate on April 30.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Mercado abierto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
Volumen
$197,707Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Polymarket traders show no dominant consensus for US Q1 2026 GDP growth, with market-implied probabilities tightly clustered at 18.5% each for the 2.5–3.0% and 3.0–3.5% bins, reflecting competing forces amid the Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast of 2.0% as of March 23—down from 2.7% earlier due to softer consumer spending and private investment data. Downward revisions to Q4 2025 GDP growth at 0.7% annualized (March 13 BEA release) signal momentum loss, offset by resilient weekly jobless claims near 210,000 and FOMC's median 2026 GDP projection of 2.4%. Key swing factors include the March nonfarm payrolls report due April 4, which could shift the April 1 GDPNow update ahead of the advance estimate on April 30.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volumen
$197,707Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders show no dominant consensus for US Q1 2026 GDP growth, with market-implied probabilities tightly clustered at 18.5% each for the 2.5–3.0% and 3.0–3.5% bins, reflecting competing forces amid the Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast of 2.0% as of March 23—down from 2.7% earlier due to softer consumer spending and private investment data. Downward revisions to Q4 2025 GDP growth at 0.7% annualized (March 13 BEA release) signal momentum loss, offset by resilient weekly jobless claims near 210,000 and FOMC's median 2026 GDP projection of 2.4%. Key swing factors include the March nonfarm payrolls report due April 4, which could shift the April 1 GDPNow update ahead of the advance estimate on April 30.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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