Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—4.0–4.4% (35.5%), 4.5%+ (33.5%), and 2.5–2.9% (32.4%)—reflect a tight contest over U.K. 2026 annual CPI inflation, driven by March 2026 data showing a rise to 3.3% year-over-year from February's 3.0%, amid energy price pass-through from Middle East tensions including the Iran conflict. The Bank of England's April Monetary Policy Report, while holding Bank Rate at 3.75%, highlighted upside risks to inflation from elevated oil at $108/barrel and food costs, with scenarios projecting peaks near 6% if shocks persist, offsetting prior disinflation toward the 2% target. Key differentiators include geopolitical escalation versus demand weakness and potential MPC hikes; watch May CPI release and June MPC for resolution catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoInflación anual del Reino Unido 2026
Inflación anual del Reino Unido 2026
4,0-4,4% 36%
4,5%+ 28%
2,0–2,4% 14%
3,5–3,9% 6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
20 ene 2027
<1,0%
1%
1,0–1,4%
5%
1,5–1,9%
6%
2,0–2,4%
14%
2,5–2,9%
31%
3,5–3,9%
11%
4,0-4,4%
36%
4,5%+
35%
4,0-4,4% 36%
4,5%+ 28%
2,0–2,4% 14%
3,5–3,9% 6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
20 ene 2027
<1,0%
$616 Vol.
1%
1,0–1,4%
$330 Vol.
5%
1,5–1,9%
$483 Vol.
6%
2,0–2,4%
$305 Vol.
14%
2,5–2,9%
$385 Vol.
31%
3,5–3,9%
$525 Vol.
11%
4,0-4,4%
$420 Vol.
36%
4,5%+
$1,074 Vol.
35%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarPolymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—4.0–4.4% (35.5%), 4.5%+ (33.5%), and 2.5–2.9% (32.4%)—reflect a tight contest over U.K. 2026 annual CPI inflation, driven by March 2026 data showing a rise to 3.3% year-over-year from February's 3.0%, amid energy price pass-through from Middle East tensions including the Iran conflict. The Bank of England's April Monetary Policy Report, while holding Bank Rate at 3.75%, highlighted upside risks to inflation from elevated oil at $108/barrel and food costs, with scenarios projecting peaks near 6% if shocks persist, offsetting prior disinflation toward the 2% target. Key differentiators include geopolitical escalation versus demand weakness and potential MPC hikes; watch May CPI release and June MPC for resolution catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Mercado abierto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$4,138Fecha de finalización
20 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarPolymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—4.0–4.4% (35.5%), 4.5%+ (33.5%), and 2.5–2.9% (32.4%)—reflect a tight contest over U.K. 2026 annual CPI inflation, driven by March 2026 data showing a rise to 3.3% year-over-year from February's 3.0%, amid energy price pass-through from Middle East tensions including the Iran conflict. The Bank of England's April Monetary Policy Report, while holding Bank Rate at 3.75%, highlighted upside risks to inflation from elevated oil at $108/barrel and food costs, with scenarios projecting peaks near 6% if shocks persist, offsetting prior disinflation toward the 2% target. Key differentiators include geopolitical escalation versus demand weakness and potential MPC hikes; watch May CPI release and June MPC for resolution catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Volumen
$4,138Fecha de finalización
20 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—4.0–4.4% (35.5%), 4.5%+ (33.5%), and 2.5–2.9% (32.4%)—reflect a tight contest over U.K. 2026 annual CPI inflation, driven by March 2026 data showing a rise to 3.3% year-over-year from February's 3.0%, amid energy price pass-through from Middle East tensions including the Iran conflict. The Bank of England's April Monetary Policy Report, while holding Bank Rate at 3.75%, highlighted upside risks to inflation from elevated oil at $108/barrel and food costs, with scenarios projecting peaks near 6% if shocks persist, offsetting prior disinflation toward the 2% target. Key differentiators include geopolitical escalation versus demand weakness and potential MPC hikes; watch May CPI release and June MPC for resolution catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes