Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, reflecting subdued activity signaled by January's flat monthly GDP and a sharp March flash composite PMI drop to 51.0 from February's 53.7, as Middle East war disruptions stall output and dent consumer confidence via energy shocks. Pantheon Macroeconomics' nowcast of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter growth anchors the leading bins, down from prior 0.3% estimates, amid OBR's March forecast of 1.1% annual growth for 2026 due to cyclical weakness. The 28% odds on 0.3-0.6% capture upside from services resilience, while negative growth at 7% prices tail risks from escalating global tensions; watch ONS February monthly GDP release for resolution clues ahead of the provisional Q1 estimate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado0,0-0,3% 40%
0,3-0,6% 29.2%
0,6-0,9% 23.9%
Negativo 7%
NEW
NEW
May 14, 2026
Negativo
7%
0,0-0,3%
47%
0,3-0,6%
29%
0,6-0,9%
24%
0,9-1,2%
16%
1,2-1,5%
1%
1,5-1,8%
1%
1,8%+
3%
0,0-0,3% 40%
0,3-0,6% 29.2%
0,6-0,9% 23.9%
Negativo 7%
NEW
NEW
May 14, 2026
Negativo
$0 Vol.
7%
0,0-0,3%
$8,738 Vol.
47%
0,3-0,6%
$450 Vol.
29%
0,6-0,9%
$0 Vol.
24%
0,9-1,2%
$0 Vol.
16%
1,2-1,5%
$0 Vol.
1%
1,5-1,8%
$0 Vol.
1%
1,8%+
$690 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, reflecting subdued activity signaled by January's flat monthly GDP and a sharp March flash composite PMI drop to 51.0 from February's 53.7, as Middle East war disruptions stall output and dent consumer confidence via energy shocks. Pantheon Macroeconomics' nowcast of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter growth anchors the leading bins, down from prior 0.3% estimates, amid OBR's March forecast of 1.1% annual growth for 2026 due to cyclical weakness. The 28% odds on 0.3-0.6% capture upside from services resilience, while negative growth at 7% prices tail risks from escalating global tensions; watch ONS February monthly GDP release for resolution clues ahead of the provisional Q1 estimate.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Volumen
$9,878Fecha de finalización
May 14, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, reflecting subdued activity signaled by January's flat monthly GDP and a sharp March flash composite PMI drop to 51.0 from February's 53.7, as Middle East war disruptions stall output and dent consumer confidence via energy shocks. Pantheon Macroeconomics' nowcast of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter growth anchors the leading bins, down from prior 0.3% estimates, amid OBR's March forecast of 1.1% annual growth for 2026 due to cyclical weakness. The 28% odds on 0.3-0.6% capture upside from services resilience, while negative growth at 7% prices tail risks from escalating global tensions; watch ONS February monthly GDP release for resolution clues ahead of the provisional Q1 estimate.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$9,878Fecha de finalización
May 14, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, reflecting subdued activity signaled by January's flat monthly GDP and a sharp March flash composite PMI drop to 51.0 from February's 53.7, as Middle East war disruptions stall output and dent consumer confidence via energy shocks. Pantheon Macroeconomics' nowcast of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter growth anchors the leading bins, down from prior 0.3% estimates, amid OBR's March forecast of 1.1% annual growth for 2026 due to cyclical weakness. The 28% odds on 0.3-0.6% capture upside from services resilience, while negative growth at 7% prices tail risks from escalating global tensions; watch ONS February monthly GDP release for resolution clues ahead of the provisional Q1 estimate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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