Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Eurozone annual GDP growth for 2026 in a fragmented manner, with the 1.0-2.0% bin leading at 31.5% implied probability amid ECB staff projections from March 19 revising forecasts downward to around 1.2% due to energy price surges from Middle East conflict escalation, alongside OECD's fresh cut two days ago citing higher inflation risks. Closely trailing at 29.3% is the improbable 7.0%+ outcome, betting on tail scenarios like swift geopolitical de-escalation, aggressive ECB rate cuts beyond the current deposit rate stance, or productivity surges from AI adoption. Differentiators include Q1 2026 GDP's modest 0.2% quarter-on-quarter rise per Eurostat's March 6 flash, resilient unemployment at 6.1% in January, and vulnerability to trade tensions—key swings ahead of Q2 GDP release and June ECB projections.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado1,0-2,0% 52%
<0% 23.5%
3,0-4,0% 22.0%
2,0-3,0% 18%
NEW
NEW
Jan 31, 2027
<0%
24%
0-1,0%
22%
1,0-2,0%
33%
2,0-3,0%
18%
3,0-4,0%
22%
4,0-5,0%
10%
5,0-6,0%
20%
6,0-7,0%
26%
7.0%+
29%
1,0-2,0% 52%
<0% 23.5%
3,0-4,0% 22.0%
2,0-3,0% 18%
NEW
NEW
Jan 31, 2027
<0%
$0 Vol.
24%
0-1,0%
$0 Vol.
22%
1,0-2,0%
$0 Vol.
33%
2,0-3,0%
$0 Vol.
18%
3,0-4,0%
$0 Vol.
22%
4,0-5,0%
$1,306 Vol.
10%
5,0-6,0%
$0 Vol.
20%
6,0-7,0%
$0 Vol.
26%
7.0%+
$0 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Eurozone annual GDP growth for 2026 in a fragmented manner, with the 1.0-2.0% bin leading at 31.5% implied probability amid ECB staff projections from March 19 revising forecasts downward to around 1.2% due to energy price surges from Middle East conflict escalation, alongside OECD's fresh cut two days ago citing higher inflation risks. Closely trailing at 29.3% is the improbable 7.0%+ outcome, betting on tail scenarios like swift geopolitical de-escalation, aggressive ECB rate cuts beyond the current deposit rate stance, or productivity surges from AI adoption. Differentiators include Q1 2026 GDP's modest 0.2% quarter-on-quarter rise per Eurostat's March 6 flash, resilient unemployment at 6.1% in January, and vulnerability to trade tensions—key swings ahead of Q2 GDP release and June ECB projections.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volumen
$1,306Fecha de finalización
Jan 31, 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Eurozone annual GDP growth for 2026 in a fragmented manner, with the 1.0-2.0% bin leading at 31.5% implied probability amid ECB staff projections from March 19 revising forecasts downward to around 1.2% due to energy price surges from Middle East conflict escalation, alongside OECD's fresh cut two days ago citing higher inflation risks. Closely trailing at 29.3% is the improbable 7.0%+ outcome, betting on tail scenarios like swift geopolitical de-escalation, aggressive ECB rate cuts beyond the current deposit rate stance, or productivity surges from AI adoption. Differentiators include Q1 2026 GDP's modest 0.2% quarter-on-quarter rise per Eurostat's March 6 flash, resilient unemployment at 6.1% in January, and vulnerability to trade tensions—key swings ahead of Q2 GDP release and June ECB projections.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,306Fecha de finalización
Jan 31, 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Eurozone annual GDP growth for 2026 in a fragmented manner, with the 1.0-2.0% bin leading at 31.5% implied probability amid ECB staff projections from March 19 revising forecasts downward to around 1.2% due to energy price surges from Middle East conflict escalation, alongside OECD's fresh cut two days ago citing higher inflation risks. Closely trailing at 29.3% is the improbable 7.0%+ outcome, betting on tail scenarios like swift geopolitical de-escalation, aggressive ECB rate cuts beyond the current deposit rate stance, or productivity surges from AI adoption. Differentiators include Q1 2026 GDP's modest 0.2% quarter-on-quarter rise per Eurostat's March 6 flash, resilient unemployment at 6.1% in January, and vulnerability to trade tensions—key swings ahead of Q2 GDP release and June ECB projections.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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