Recent monthly GDP data through May 2026, showing 0.7% three-month growth, have supported moderate expansion expectations for Q2, yet NIESR’s downward revision to 0.2% QoQ—citing near-flat May and June readings—has tempered optimism amid Middle East-related energy price pressures and supply disruptions. With Q1 confirmed at 0.6% QoQ and the preliminary Q2 release due August 13, trader consensus splits evenly between the 0.2–0.3% and 0.4–0.5% bands, reflecting uncertainty over whether service-sector momentum and earlier industrial gains will offset late-quarter weakness. Market-implied odds embed these competing data points and external risks without assuming a specific outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado0,2–0,3% 47%
0,4–0,5 % 45%
Negativo 4.9%
0,0–0,1% 4.5%
$32,708 Vol.
$32,708 Vol.
12 ago 2026
Negativo
5%
0,0–0,1%
16%
0,2–0,3%
47%
0,4–0,5 %
45%
0,6–0,7%
2%
0,8–0,9%
1%
1,0%+
<1%
0,2–0,3% 47%
0,4–0,5 % 45%
Negativo 4.9%
0,0–0,1% 4.5%
$32,708 Vol.
$32,708 Vol.
12 ago 2026
Negativo
$3,746 Vol.
5%
0,0–0,1%
$1,270 Vol.
16%
0,2–0,3%
$14,313 Vol.
47%
0,4–0,5 %
$5,345 Vol.
45%
0,6–0,7%
$3,876 Vol.
2%
0,8–0,9%
$3,650 Vol.
1%
1,0%+
$506 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent monthly GDP data through May 2026, showing 0.7% three-month growth, have supported moderate expansion expectations for Q2, yet NIESR’s downward revision to 0.2% QoQ—citing near-flat May and June readings—has tempered optimism amid Middle East-related energy price pressures and supply disruptions. With Q1 confirmed at 0.6% QoQ and the preliminary Q2 release due August 13, trader consensus splits evenly between the 0.2–0.3% and 0.4–0.5% bands, reflecting uncertainty over whether service-sector momentum and earlier industrial gains will offset late-quarter weakness. Market-implied odds embed these competing data points and external risks without assuming a specific outcome.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volumen
$32,708Fecha de finalización
12 ago 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent monthly GDP data through May 2026, showing 0.7% three-month growth, have supported moderate expansion expectations for Q2, yet NIESR’s downward revision to 0.2% QoQ—citing near-flat May and June readings—has tempered optimism amid Middle East-related energy price pressures and supply disruptions. With Q1 confirmed at 0.6% QoQ and the preliminary Q2 release due August 13, trader consensus splits evenly between the 0.2–0.3% and 0.4–0.5% bands, reflecting uncertainty over whether service-sector momentum and earlier industrial gains will offset late-quarter weakness. Market-implied odds embed these competing data points and external risks without assuming a specific outcome.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$32,708Fecha de finalización
12 ago 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly GDP data through May 2026, showing 0.7% three-month growth, have supported moderate expansion expectations for Q2, yet NIESR’s downward revision to 0.2% QoQ—citing near-flat May and June readings—has tempered optimism amid Middle East-related energy price pressures and supply disruptions. With Q1 confirmed at 0.6% QoQ and the preliminary Q2 release due August 13, trader consensus splits evenly between the 0.2–0.3% and 0.4–0.5% bands, reflecting uncertainty over whether service-sector momentum and earlier industrial gains will offset late-quarter weakness. Market-implied odds embed these competing data points and external risks without assuming a specific outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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