The hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI print at 3.8% year-over-year—up from March's 3.3% and exceeding economist forecasts of 3.7%—driven by surging energy costs amid Iran conflict disruptions, has intensified uncertainty for May's annual inflation reading, leaving Polymarket trader consensus evenly split at 50% implied probabilities across outcomes from 3.4% to ≥4.4%. Core CPI also accelerated to 2.8% versus 2.7% anticipated, signaling sticky underlying pressures from shelter and services, while recent post-ceasefire Brent crude declines (118 to 92) may temper energy pass-through into May data, creating a contest between reacceleration bets and moderation hopes. Key swing factors include super-core services trends and tariff effects on goods; watch the June 10 release amid hawkish Fed repricing with no 2026 rate cuts now priced in.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado4.1% 31%
4.2% 30%
4.0% 27%
4.3% 22%
NUEVO
NUEVO
10 jun 2026
≤3,3%
3%
3.4%
3%
3.5%
11%
3.6%
8%
3.7%
9%
3.8%
18%
3.9%
17%
4.0%
27%
4.1%
31%
4.2%
30%
4.3%
22%
≥4.4%
13%
4.1% 31%
4.2% 30%
4.0% 27%
4.3% 22%
NUEVO
NUEVO
10 jun 2026
≤3,3%
$62 Vol.
3%
3.4%
$0 Vol.
3%
3.5%
$71 Vol.
11%
3.6%
$71 Vol.
8%
3.7%
$71 Vol.
9%
3.8%
$0 Vol.
18%
3.9%
$0 Vol.
17%
4.0%
$0 Vol.
27%
4.1%
$0 Vol.
31%
4.2%
$0 Vol.
30%
4.3%
$0 Vol.
22%
≥4.4%
$0 Vol.
13%
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending May 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI print at 3.8% year-over-year—up from March's 3.3% and exceeding economist forecasts of 3.7%—driven by surging energy costs amid Iran conflict disruptions, has intensified uncertainty for May's annual inflation reading, leaving Polymarket trader consensus evenly split at 50% implied probabilities across outcomes from 3.4% to ≥4.4%. Core CPI also accelerated to 2.8% versus 2.7% anticipated, signaling sticky underlying pressures from shelter and services, while recent post-ceasefire Brent crude declines (118 to 92) may temper energy pass-through into May data, creating a contest between reacceleration bets and moderation hopes. Key swing factors include super-core services trends and tariff effects on goods; watch the June 10 release amid hawkish Fed repricing with no 2026 rate cuts now priced in.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending May 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercado abierto: May 12, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volumen
$275Fecha de finalización
10 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending May 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI print at 3.8% year-over-year—up from March's 3.3% and exceeding economist forecasts of 3.7%—driven by surging energy costs amid Iran conflict disruptions, has intensified uncertainty for May's annual inflation reading, leaving Polymarket trader consensus evenly split at 50% implied probabilities across outcomes from 3.4% to ≥4.4%. Core CPI also accelerated to 2.8% versus 2.7% anticipated, signaling sticky underlying pressures from shelter and services, while recent post-ceasefire Brent crude declines (118 to 92) may temper energy pass-through into May data, creating a contest between reacceleration bets and moderation hopes. Key swing factors include super-core services trends and tariff effects on goods; watch the June 10 release amid hawkish Fed repricing with no 2026 rate cuts now priced in.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending May 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volumen
$275Fecha de finalización
10 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI print at 3.8% year-over-year—up from March's 3.3% and exceeding economist forecasts of 3.7%—driven by surging energy costs amid Iran conflict disruptions, has intensified uncertainty for May's annual inflation reading, leaving Polymarket trader consensus evenly split at 50% implied probabilities across outcomes from 3.4% to ≥4.4%. Core CPI also accelerated to 2.8% versus 2.7% anticipated, signaling sticky underlying pressures from shelter and services, while recent post-ceasefire Brent crude declines (118 to 92) may temper energy pass-through into May data, creating a contest between reacceleration bets and moderation hopes. Key swing factors include super-core services trends and tariff effects on goods; watch the June 10 release amid hawkish Fed repricing with no 2026 rate cuts now priced in.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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