Recent April CPI data surprised to the upside at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by sharp energy price gains amid geopolitical tensions, establishing the primary catalyst for trader positioning on the May print. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.2% and 4.3%, reflecting uncertainty over the persistence of oil-driven pressures versus moderating shelter and core components. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to a 4.18% outcome, while broader forecasts incorporate tariff pass-through and labor market dynamics that could sustain readings near 4%. The June 10 release remains the key near-term catalyst, with resolution hinging on incoming monthly price data and any revisions to prior figures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado4.2% 44%
4.3% 40%
≥4.4% 11%
4.1% 6.3%
$351,926 Vol.
$351,926 Vol.
10 jun 2026
≤3,3%
<1%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
<1%
3.6%
<1%
3.7%
<1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
<1%
4.0%
1%
4.1%
6%
4.2%
44%
4.3%
40%
≥4.4%
11%
4.2% 44%
4.3% 40%
≥4.4% 11%
4.1% 6.3%
$351,926 Vol.
$351,926 Vol.
10 jun 2026
≤3,3%
$19,516 Vol.
<1%
3.4%
$17,416 Vol.
<1%
3.5%
$24,784 Vol.
<1%
3.6%
$22,199 Vol.
<1%
3.7%
$22,790 Vol.
<1%
3.8%
$22,762 Vol.
<1%
3.9%
$29,209 Vol.
<1%
4.0%
$24,595 Vol.
1%
4.1%
$28,833 Vol.
6%
4.2%
$44,405 Vol.
44%
4.3%
$57,092 Vol.
40%
≥4.4%
$38,326 Vol.
11%
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending May 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent April CPI data surprised to the upside at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by sharp energy price gains amid geopolitical tensions, establishing the primary catalyst for trader positioning on the May print. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.2% and 4.3%, reflecting uncertainty over the persistence of oil-driven pressures versus moderating shelter and core components. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to a 4.18% outcome, while broader forecasts incorporate tariff pass-through and labor market dynamics that could sustain readings near 4%. The June 10 release remains the key near-term catalyst, with resolution hinging on incoming monthly price data and any revisions to prior figures.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending May 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercado abierto: May 12, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volumen
$351,926Fecha de finalización
10 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending May 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent April CPI data surprised to the upside at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by sharp energy price gains amid geopolitical tensions, establishing the primary catalyst for trader positioning on the May print. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.2% and 4.3%, reflecting uncertainty over the persistence of oil-driven pressures versus moderating shelter and core components. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to a 4.18% outcome, while broader forecasts incorporate tariff pass-through and labor market dynamics that could sustain readings near 4%. The June 10 release remains the key near-term catalyst, with resolution hinging on incoming monthly price data and any revisions to prior figures.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending May 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volumen
$351,926Fecha de finalización
10 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April CPI data surprised to the upside at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by sharp energy price gains amid geopolitical tensions, establishing the primary catalyst for trader positioning on the May print. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.2% and 4.3%, reflecting uncertainty over the persistence of oil-driven pressures versus moderating shelter and core components. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to a 4.18% outcome, while broader forecasts incorporate tariff pass-through and labor market dynamics that could sustain readings near 4%. The June 10 release remains the key near-term catalyst, with resolution hinging on incoming monthly price data and any revisions to prior figures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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