Recent energy price spikes tied to the Iran conflict have driven gasoline costs sharply higher, positioning May 2026 headline CPI at a consensus 4.2% year-over-year—the market’s leading outcome at 51% implied probability—following April’s 3.8% print. Trader positioning around 4.2-4.3% reflects expectations for a 0.5% monthly increase amid limited broader pass-through, with core CPI seen edging to 2.9%. Cleveland Fed nowcasts align closely at 4.18%, while fading shelter adjustments and tariff effects provide some offset. The data release, due today, remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift odds if energy momentum moderates or broadens.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado4.2% 49%
4.3% 30%
≥4.4% 14%
4.1% 10.7%
$571,995 Vol.
$571,995 Vol.
10 jun 2026
≤3,3%
<1%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
<1%
3.6%
<1%
3.7%
<1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
1%
4.0%
2%
4.1%
11%
4.2%
49%
4.3%
30%
≥4.4%
14%
4.2% 49%
4.3% 30%
≥4.4% 14%
4.1% 10.7%
$571,995 Vol.
$571,995 Vol.
10 jun 2026
≤3,3%
$23,380 Vol.
<1%
3.4%
$19,993 Vol.
<1%
3.5%
$45,245 Vol.
<1%
3.6%
$34,427 Vol.
<1%
3.7%
$32,566 Vol.
<1%
3.8%
$30,849 Vol.
<1%
3.9%
$35,758 Vol.
1%
4.0%
$41,208 Vol.
2%
4.1%
$58,243 Vol.
11%
4.2%
$83,407 Vol.
49%
4.3%
$99,123 Vol.
30%
≥4.4%
$68,654 Vol.
14%
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending May 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent energy price spikes tied to the Iran conflict have driven gasoline costs sharply higher, positioning May 2026 headline CPI at a consensus 4.2% year-over-year—the market’s leading outcome at 51% implied probability—following April’s 3.8% print. Trader positioning around 4.2-4.3% reflects expectations for a 0.5% monthly increase amid limited broader pass-through, with core CPI seen edging to 2.9%. Cleveland Fed nowcasts align closely at 4.18%, while fading shelter adjustments and tariff effects provide some offset. The data release, due today, remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift odds if energy momentum moderates or broadens.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending May 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercado abierto: May 12, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volumen
$571,995Fecha de finalización
10 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending May 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent energy price spikes tied to the Iran conflict have driven gasoline costs sharply higher, positioning May 2026 headline CPI at a consensus 4.2% year-over-year—the market’s leading outcome at 51% implied probability—following April’s 3.8% print. Trader positioning around 4.2-4.3% reflects expectations for a 0.5% monthly increase amid limited broader pass-through, with core CPI seen edging to 2.9%. Cleveland Fed nowcasts align closely at 4.18%, while fading shelter adjustments and tariff effects provide some offset. The data release, due today, remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift odds if energy momentum moderates or broadens.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending May 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volumen
$571,995Fecha de finalización
10 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent energy price spikes tied to the Iran conflict have driven gasoline costs sharply higher, positioning May 2026 headline CPI at a consensus 4.2% year-over-year—the market’s leading outcome at 51% implied probability—following April’s 3.8% print. Trader positioning around 4.2-4.3% reflects expectations for a 0.5% monthly increase amid limited broader pass-through, with core CPI seen edging to 2.9%. Cleveland Fed nowcasts align closely at 4.18%, while fading shelter adjustments and tariff effects provide some offset. The data release, due today, remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift odds if energy momentum moderates or broadens.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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