Recent provisional CDC data for 2025 shows the U.S. general fertility rate falling another 1% to a record low of 53.1 births per 1,000 women ages 15–44, extending the steady slide since 2007 amid rising living costs, delayed childbearing, and shifting cultural priorities around careers and family timing. CBO projections peg the total fertility rate at 1.58 for 2026 with further softening ahead, reflecting no near-term rebound catalyst or policy-driven upswing. Traders see limited momentum for a Q1 2026 increase, as the long-running demographic storyline favors continued contraction over any sudden cultural or economic reversal.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoUS fertility rate up in Q1 2026?
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.Recent provisional CDC data for 2025 shows the U.S. general fertility rate falling another 1% to a record low of 53.1 births per 1,000 women ages 15–44, extending the steady slide since 2007 amid rising living costs, delayed childbearing, and shifting cultural priorities around careers and family timing. CBO projections peg the total fertility rate at 1.58 for 2026 with further softening ahead, reflecting no near-term rebound catalyst or policy-driven upswing. Traders see limited momentum for a Q1 2026 increase, as the long-running demographic storyline favors continued contraction over any sudden cultural or economic reversal.
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 4:53 PM ET
Volumen
$520Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.Recent provisional CDC data for 2025 shows the U.S. general fertility rate falling another 1% to a record low of 53.1 births per 1,000 women ages 15–44, extending the steady slide since 2007 amid rising living costs, delayed childbearing, and shifting cultural priorities around careers and family timing. CBO projections peg the total fertility rate at 1.58 for 2026 with further softening ahead, reflecting no near-term rebound catalyst or policy-driven upswing. Traders see limited momentum for a Q1 2026 increase, as the long-running demographic storyline favors continued contraction over any sudden cultural or economic reversal.
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
Volumen
$520Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent provisional CDC data for 2025 shows the U.S. general fertility rate falling another 1% to a record low of 53.1 births per 1,000 women ages 15–44, extending the steady slide since 2007 amid rising living costs, delayed childbearing, and shifting cultural priorities around careers and family timing. CBO projections peg the total fertility rate at 1.58 for 2026 with further softening ahead, reflecting no near-term rebound catalyst or policy-driven upswing. Traders see limited momentum for a Q1 2026 increase, as the long-running demographic storyline favors continued contraction over any sudden cultural or economic reversal.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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