Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59.5% implied probability against a Bank of Canada policy rate hike in 2026, driven by persistent disinflation and labor market softening that diminish tightening needs. The BoC held its overnight target steady at 2.25% on March 18—its second pause of the year—following February CPI easing to 1.8% year-over-year from 2.3% in January, below the 2% target, alongside unemployment climbing to 6.7% and GDP growth forecasts averaging 1.25%. While trade tensions and potential energy shocks pose upside inflation risks, subdued economic momentum supports the current stance. Key catalysts include the April 29 rate decision and mid-April March CPI data, which could sway sentiment if pressures reaccelerate.