Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64.5% implied probability of a Bank of England rate hike sometime in 2026, driven primarily by escalating Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict, which have spurred a sharp rise in global energy prices and sustained UK CPI inflation at 3.0% through February. Despite the MPC's unanimous March 19 decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% amid softening wage growth to a five-year low of 3.8%, persistent services inflation at 4.3% and potential second-round effects have markets anticipating 25 basis point increases later this year. Key catalysts include upcoming MPC meetings on April 30 and June, where fresh CPI data and energy trajectories could shift policy expectations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$12,515 Vol.
$12,515 Vol.
Sí
$12,515 Vol.
$12,515 Vol.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Feb 26, 2026, 6:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64.5% implied probability of a Bank of England rate hike sometime in 2026, driven primarily by escalating Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict, which have spurred a sharp rise in global energy prices and sustained UK CPI inflation at 3.0% through February. Despite the MPC's unanimous March 19 decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% amid softening wage growth to a five-year low of 3.8%, persistent services inflation at 4.3% and potential second-round effects have markets anticipating 25 basis point increases later this year. Key catalysts include upcoming MPC meetings on April 30 and June, where fresh CPI data and energy trajectories could shift policy expectations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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