Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 94.3% implied probability of no change at the Bank of Canada's April 17 policy announcement, driven by March CPI data released April 16 showing headline inflation at 2.9% year-over-year—easing from 3.4% but with core measures (trimmed-mean and median) stuck near 3.1% amid persistent shelter costs. Resilient labor market indicators, including 27,000 jobs added in March and unemployment holding at 6.1%, signal insufficient disinflation momentum for cuts from the current 4.75%-5% overnight rate target. Governor Macklem's recent emphasis on sustained progress reinforces this positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly weak growth data or further core inflation softening, though proximity to resolution limits major shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Decisión del Banco de Canadá en abril?
¿Decisión del Banco de Canadá en abril?
Sin cambios 94.5%
Aumento 4.3%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos 1.1%
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$55,023 Vol.
$55,023 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
1%
Sin cambios
95%
Aumento
4%
Sin cambios 94.5%
Aumento 4.3%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos 1.1%
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$55,023 Vol.
$55,023 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos
$14,144 Vol.
<1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
$20,700 Vol.
1%
Sin cambios
$13,633 Vol.
95%
Aumento
$6,545 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 94.3% implied probability of no change at the Bank of Canada's April 17 policy announcement, driven by March CPI data released April 16 showing headline inflation at 2.9% year-over-year—easing from 3.4% but with core measures (trimmed-mean and median) stuck near 3.1% amid persistent shelter costs. Resilient labor market indicators, including 27,000 jobs added in March and unemployment holding at 6.1%, signal insufficient disinflation momentum for cuts from the current 4.75%-5% overnight rate target. Governor Macklem's recent emphasis on sustained progress reinforces this positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly weak growth data or further core inflation softening, though proximity to resolution limits major shifts.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volumen
$55,023Fecha de finalización
Apr 29, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 94.3% implied probability of no change at the Bank of Canada's April 17 policy announcement, driven by March CPI data released April 16 showing headline inflation at 2.9% year-over-year—easing from 3.4% but with core measures (trimmed-mean and median) stuck near 3.1% amid persistent shelter costs. Resilient labor market indicators, including 27,000 jobs added in March and unemployment holding at 6.1%, signal insufficient disinflation momentum for cuts from the current 4.75%-5% overnight rate target. Governor Macklem's recent emphasis on sustained progress reinforces this positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly weak growth data or further core inflation softening, though proximity to resolution limits major shifts.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$55,023Fecha de finalización
Apr 29, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 94.3% implied probability of no change at the Bank of Canada's April 17 policy announcement, driven by March CPI data released April 16 showing headline inflation at 2.9% year-over-year—easing from 3.4% but with core measures (trimmed-mean and median) stuck near 3.1% amid persistent shelter costs. Resilient labor market indicators, including 27,000 jobs added in March and unemployment holding at 6.1%, signal insufficient disinflation momentum for cuts from the current 4.75%-5% overnight rate target. Governor Macklem's recent emphasis on sustained progress reinforces this positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly weak growth data or further core inflation softening, though proximity to resolution limits major shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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