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Economía·Tarifas Globales

Decisión del Banco de México en mayo

Market icon
Economía·Tarifas Globales

Decisión del Banco de México en mayo

May 7

Jun 25

May 7

Jun 25

Sin cambios 76%

Disminución 12%

Aumento 9.6%

Polymarket
NEW

Sin cambios 76%

Disminución 12%

Aumento 9.6%

Polymarket
NEW

Disminución

$671 Vol.

17%

Sin cambios

$1,582 Vol.

76%

Aumento

$285 Vol.

10%

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 75.5% implied probability of no change in Banxico's target rate at the May 2026 meeting, reflecting caution after the central bank's surprise 25-basis-point cut to 6.75% on March 26 amid rising headline inflation to 4.63% in early March. The split-vote decision prioritized weakening economic activity signals over price pressures, with GDP growth forecasts upgraded to 1.8% and unemployment steady at 2.7%, yet core inflation holding near 4.5% tempers further easing odds at 18%. A rate hike carries just 9.6% weight, contingent on sustained inflationary surprises. Traders eye April CPI releases and the late-April policy session as key catalysts ahead of May's resolution.

Polymarket traders price a 75.5% implied probability of no change in Banxico's target rate at the May 2026 meeting, reflecting caution after the central bank's surprise 25-basis-point cut to 6.75% on March 26 amid rising headline inflation to 4.63% in early March. The split-vote decision prioritized weakening economic activity signals over price pressures, with GDP growth forecasts upgraded to 1.8% and unemployment steady at 2.7%, yet core inflation holding near 4.5% tempers further easing odds at 18%. A rate hike carries just 9.6% weight, contingent on sustained inflationary surprises. Traders eye April CPI releases and the late-April policy session as key catalysts ahead of May's resolution.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 75.5% implied probability of no change in Banxico's target rate at the May 2026 meeting, reflecting caution after the central bank's surprise 25-basis-point cut to 6.75% on March 26 amid rising headline inflation to 4.63% in early March. The split-vote decision prioritized weakening economic activity signals over price pressures, with GDP growth forecasts upgraded to 1.8% and unemployment steady at 2.7%, yet core inflation holding near 4.5% tempers further easing odds at 18%. A rate hike carries just 9.6% weight, contingent on sustained inflationary surprises. Traders eye April CPI releases and the late-April policy session as key catalysts ahead of May's resolution.

Polymarket traders price a 75.5% implied probability of no change in Banxico's target rate at the May 2026 meeting, reflecting caution after the central bank's surprise 25-basis-point cut to 6.75% on March 26 amid rising headline inflation to 4.63% in early March. The split-vote decision prioritized weakening economic activity signals over price pressures, with GDP growth forecasts upgraded to 1.8% and unemployment steady at 2.7%, yet core inflation holding near 4.5% tempers further easing odds at 18%. A rate hike carries just 9.6% weight, contingent on sustained inflationary surprises. Traders eye April CPI releases and the late-April policy session as key catalysts ahead of May's resolution.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Decisión del Banco de México en mayo" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 3 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Sin cambios" con 76%, seguido de "Disminución" con 17%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 76¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 76% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Decisión del Banco de México en mayo" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Feb 6, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Decisión del Banco de México en mayo", explora los 3 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Decisión del Banco de México en mayo" es "Sin cambios" con 76%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 76% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Disminución" con 17%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Decisión del Banco de México en mayo" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.