The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 policy decision, which held the short-term rate at 0.75 percent by a 6-3 vote while lifting the fiscal 2026 core inflation forecast to 2.8 percent from 1.9 percent amid Middle East energy shocks, has anchored trader consensus around a 25 basis point hike at the June 15-16 meeting. Recent stronger-than-expected first-quarter GDP prints and persistent wage gains have reinforced expectations for gradual normalization, supporting the 78.1 percent market-implied probability for the modest increase. Lingering uncertainty over geopolitical oil-price volatility and softer growth projections continue to underpin the 18 percent odds of no change, with the low probabilities on larger moves or cuts reflecting the central bank’s data-dependent approach ahead of the next quarterly outlook.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAumento de 25 puntos básicos 78.2%
Sin cambios 18%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos 1.9%
Reducir tasas <1%
$129,757 Vol.
$129,757 Vol.
16 jun 2026
Reducir tasas
1%
Sin cambios
18%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
78%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
2%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 78.2%
Sin cambios 18%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos 1.9%
Reducir tasas <1%
$129,757 Vol.
$129,757 Vol.
16 jun 2026
Reducir tasas
$35,426 Vol.
1%
Sin cambios
$35,324 Vol.
18%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$32,034 Vol.
78%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$26,973 Vol.
2%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 policy decision, which held the short-term rate at 0.75 percent by a 6-3 vote while lifting the fiscal 2026 core inflation forecast to 2.8 percent from 1.9 percent amid Middle East energy shocks, has anchored trader consensus around a 25 basis point hike at the June 15-16 meeting. Recent stronger-than-expected first-quarter GDP prints and persistent wage gains have reinforced expectations for gradual normalization, supporting the 78.1 percent market-implied probability for the modest increase. Lingering uncertainty over geopolitical oil-price volatility and softer growth projections continue to underpin the 18 percent odds of no change, with the low probabilities on larger moves or cuts reflecting the central bank’s data-dependent approach ahead of the next quarterly outlook.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Volumen
$129,757Fecha de finalización
16 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 policy decision, which held the short-term rate at 0.75 percent by a 6-3 vote while lifting the fiscal 2026 core inflation forecast to 2.8 percent from 1.9 percent amid Middle East energy shocks, has anchored trader consensus around a 25 basis point hike at the June 15-16 meeting. Recent stronger-than-expected first-quarter GDP prints and persistent wage gains have reinforced expectations for gradual normalization, supporting the 78.1 percent market-implied probability for the modest increase. Lingering uncertainty over geopolitical oil-price volatility and softer growth projections continue to underpin the 18 percent odds of no change, with the low probabilities on larger moves or cuts reflecting the central bank’s data-dependent approach ahead of the next quarterly outlook.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$129,757Fecha de finalización
16 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 policy decision, which held the short-term rate at 0.75 percent by a 6-3 vote while lifting the fiscal 2026 core inflation forecast to 2.8 percent from 1.9 percent amid Middle East energy shocks, has anchored trader consensus around a 25 basis point hike at the June 15-16 meeting. Recent stronger-than-expected first-quarter GDP prints and persistent wage gains have reinforced expectations for gradual normalization, supporting the 78.1 percent market-implied probability for the modest increase. Lingering uncertainty over geopolitical oil-price volatility and softer growth projections continue to underpin the 18 percent odds of no change, with the low probabilities on larger moves or cuts reflecting the central bank’s data-dependent approach ahead of the next quarterly outlook.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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