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Mundo·Tarifas Globales

¿Decisión del Banco de la Reserva de Australia en mayo?

Market icon
Mundo·Tarifas Globales

¿Decisión del Banco de la Reserva de Australia en mayo?

May 5

Jun 16

May 5

Jun 16

Aumentar 62%

Sin cambios 35%

Disminución <1%

Polymarket

$20,116 Vol.

Aumentar 62%

Sin cambios 35%

Disminución <1%

Polymarket

$20,116 Vol.

Disminución

$5,612 Vol.

1%

Sin cambios

$2,435 Vol.

35%

Aumentar

$12,068 Vol.

62%

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, have priced a 61.5% implied probability for the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its cash rate target in May—above the current 4.10%—driven by persistent trimmed mean core inflation holding steady at 3.3% annually through February despite a slight headline CPI slowdown to 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding the 2–3% target. The RBA's back-to-back 25 basis point hikes in February and March underscore a hawkish stance amid sticky price pressures, outweighing a softening labor market with unemployment rising to 4.3% on robust but part-time-heavy job gains. No-change odds at 34.5% reflect potential dovish risks from upcoming April CPI and Q1 GDP data, while cuts remain negligible at 0.9%. ASX futures imply a similar ~57% hike chance, aligning with bank consensus like CBA's call for 4.35%.

Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, have priced a 61.5% implied probability for the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its cash rate target in May—above the current 4.10%—driven by persistent trimmed mean core inflation holding steady at 3.3% annually through February despite a slight headline CPI slowdown to 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding the 2–3% target. The RBA's back-to-back 25 basis point hikes in February and March underscore a hawkish stance amid sticky price pressures, outweighing a softening labor market with unemployment rising to 4.3% on robust but part-time-heavy job gains. No-change odds at 34.5% reflect potential dovish risks from upcoming April CPI and Q1 GDP data, while cuts remain negligible at 0.9%. ASX futures imply a similar ~57% hike chance, aligning with bank consensus like CBA's call for 4.35%.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, have priced a 61.5% implied probability for the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its cash rate target in May—above the current 4.10%—driven by persistent trimmed mean core inflation holding steady at 3.3% annually through February despite a slight headline CPI slowdown to 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding the 2–3% target. The RBA's back-to-back 25 basis point hikes in February and March underscore a hawkish stance amid sticky price pressures, outweighing a softening labor market with unemployment rising to 4.3% on robust but part-time-heavy job gains. No-change odds at 34.5% reflect potential dovish risks from upcoming April CPI and Q1 GDP data, while cuts remain negligible at 0.9%. ASX futures imply a similar ~57% hike chance, aligning with bank consensus like CBA's call for 4.35%.

Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, have priced a 61.5% implied probability for the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its cash rate target in May—above the current 4.10%—driven by persistent trimmed mean core inflation holding steady at 3.3% annually through February despite a slight headline CPI slowdown to 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding the 2–3% target. The RBA's back-to-back 25 basis point hikes in February and March underscore a hawkish stance amid sticky price pressures, outweighing a softening labor market with unemployment rising to 4.3% on robust but part-time-heavy job gains. No-change odds at 34.5% reflect potential dovish risks from upcoming April CPI and Q1 GDP data, while cuts remain negligible at 0.9%. ASX futures imply a similar ~57% hike chance, aligning with bank consensus like CBA's call for 4.35%.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Decisión del Banco de la Reserva de Australia en mayo?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 3 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Aumentar" con 62%, seguido de "Sin cambios" con 35%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 62¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 62% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Decisión del Banco de la Reserva de Australia en mayo?" ha generado $20.1K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 3, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Decisión del Banco de la Reserva de Australia en mayo?", explora los 3 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Decisión del Banco de la Reserva de Australia en mayo?" es "Aumentar" con 62%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 62% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Sin cambios" con 35%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Decisión del Banco de la Reserva de Australia en mayo?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.