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Economía·Indicadores Macro

Tipos de interés del BCE: marzo de 2026

Market icon
Economía·Indicadores Macro

Tipos de interés del BCE: marzo de 2026

Mar 19

Apr 30

Mar 19

Apr 30

Sin cambios 99.6%

Aumento <1%

Disminución de 25 puntos básicos <1%

Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%

Polymarket

$936,906 Vol.

Sin cambios 99.6%

Aumento <1%

Disminución de 25 puntos básicos <1%

Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%

Polymarket

$936,906 Vol.

Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos

$267,550 Vol.

<1%

Disminución de 25 puntos básicos

$190,990 Vol.

<1%

Sin cambios

$257,141 Vol.

100%

Aumento

$221,225 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) March 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its March 19, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the March 19, 2026 meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by March 31, 20256, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) March 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its March 19, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the March 19, 2026 meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by March 31, 20256, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) March 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its March 19, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the March 19, 2026 meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by March 31, 20256, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) March 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its March 19, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the March 19, 2026 meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by March 31, 20256, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) March 2026 meeting.

If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its March 19, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html

The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html

This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the March 19, 2026 meeting.

If no interest rate decision or update is published by March 31, 20256, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volumen
$936,906
Fecha de finalización
Mar 19, 2026
Mercado abierto
Dec 18, 2025, 3:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) March 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its March 19, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the March 19, 2026 meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by March 31, 20256, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) March 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its March 19, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the March 19, 2026 meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by March 31, 20256, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) March 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its March 19, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the March 19, 2026 meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by March 31, 20256, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) March 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its March 19, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the March 19, 2026 meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by March 31, 20256, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) March 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its March 19, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the March 19, 2026 meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by March 31, 20256, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.

Traders assign a 99.7% implied probability to no change in ECB interest rates at the March 2026 meeting, driven by forward guidance from ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasizing a data-dependent path toward neutral policy amid disinflation nearing the 2% target and stable Eurozone growth forecasts. Recent December 2024 decision to hold the deposit rate at 3.25% after prior cuts reinforces expectations of gradual stabilization, with market-based measures like ESTR futures pricing minimal volatility that far ahead. This commanding position reflects the wisdom of crowds betting on baseline continuity absent shocks. Realistic challenges include resurgent energy inflation from geopolitical tensions, a sharp growth downturn prompting easing, or fiscal expansions in key economies like Germany pressuring monetary stance.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Tipos de interés del BCE: marzo de 2026" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 4 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Sin cambios" con 100%, seguido de "Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos" con 0%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Tipos de interés del BCE: marzo de 2026" ha generado $936.9K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Dec 18, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Tipos de interés del BCE: marzo de 2026", explora los 4 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Tipos de interés del BCE: marzo de 2026" es "Sin cambios" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos" con 0%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Tipos de interés del BCE: marzo de 2026" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.