Trader consensus on Polymarket's Services Down Parlay market reflects a 98.2% implied probability for "No," driven by the March 31, 2026, deadline passing without all required incidents: an AWS "disrupted" severity outage on its Health Dashboard, plus Critical (red) incidents for both Discord and Cloudflare as resolved on their status pages. While AWS reported operational issues in early March and minor events in May, credible reporting confirms neither Discord nor Cloudflare logged qualifying Critical disruptions by quarter-end, underscoring redundant infrastructure and proactive mitigations amid rising AI workloads. Realistic risks to this consensus include delayed severity reclassifications or disputes over incident scopes, though status page finalizations make "Yes" a remote 1.8% outlier as the market awaits formal resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$14,290 Vol.
$14,290 Vol.
31 mar 2026
Sí
$14,290 Vol.
$14,290 Vol.
31 mar 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's Services Down Parlay market reflects a 98.2% implied probability for "No," driven by the March 31, 2026, deadline passing without all required incidents: an AWS "disrupted" severity outage on its Health Dashboard, plus Critical (red) incidents for both Discord and Cloudflare as resolved on their status pages. While AWS reported operational issues in early March and minor events in May, credible reporting confirms neither Discord nor Cloudflare logged qualifying Critical disruptions by quarter-end, underscoring redundant infrastructure and proactive mitigations amid rising AI workloads. Realistic risks to this consensus include delayed severity reclassifications or disputes over incident scopes, though status page finalizations make "Yes" a remote 1.8% outlier as the market awaits formal resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
Mercado abierto: Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
Volumen
$14,290Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's Services Down Parlay market reflects a 98.2% implied probability for "No," driven by the March 31, 2026, deadline passing without all required incidents: an AWS "disrupted" severity outage on its Health Dashboard, plus Critical (red) incidents for both Discord and Cloudflare as resolved on their status pages. While AWS reported operational issues in early March and minor events in May, credible reporting confirms neither Discord nor Cloudflare logged qualifying Critical disruptions by quarter-end, underscoring redundant infrastructure and proactive mitigations amid rising AI workloads. Realistic risks to this consensus include delayed severity reclassifications or disputes over incident scopes, though status page finalizations make "Yes" a remote 1.8% outlier as the market awaits formal resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
Volumen
$14,290Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket's Services Down Parlay market reflects a 98.2% implied probability for "No," driven by the March 31, 2026, deadline passing without all required incidents: an AWS "disrupted" severity outage on its Health Dashboard, plus Critical (red) incidents for both Discord and Cloudflare as resolved on their status pages. While AWS reported operational issues in early March and minor events in May, credible reporting confirms neither Discord nor Cloudflare logged qualifying Critical disruptions by quarter-end, underscoring redundant infrastructure and proactive mitigations amid rising AI workloads. Realistic risks to this consensus include delayed severity reclassifications or disputes over incident scopes, though status page finalizations make "Yes" a remote 1.8% outlier as the market awaits formal resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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