Recent August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year increase, driven largely by energy prices, have reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve tightening by year-end. With the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% and core inflation at 2.4% annually, market-implied odds favor a 25 basis point hike in December at 60.5%, reflecting slower disinflation and concerns over second-round effects amid resilient demand and AI-related investment. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and Wall Street forecasts for multiple hikes this year further support this positioning, while the 35.5% probability of no change highlights ongoing uncertainty around the September FOMC outcome and labor market trends.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado25 bps increase 61%
Sin cambios 36%
25 bps decrease 3.8%
50+ bps increase 1.5%
$826,028 Vol.
$826,028 Vol.
9 dic 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
4%
Sin cambios
36%
25 bps increase
61%
50+ bps increase
2%
25 bps increase 61%
Sin cambios 36%
25 bps decrease 3.8%
50+ bps increase 1.5%
$826,028 Vol.
$826,028 Vol.
9 dic 2026
50+ bps decrease
$131,944 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$191,777 Vol.
4%
Sin cambios
$163,154 Vol.
36%
25 bps increase
$214,365 Vol.
61%
50+ bps increase
$124,798 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year increase, driven largely by energy prices, have reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve tightening by year-end. With the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% and core inflation at 2.4% annually, market-implied odds favor a 25 basis point hike in December at 60.5%, reflecting slower disinflation and concerns over second-round effects amid resilient demand and AI-related investment. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and Wall Street forecasts for multiple hikes this year further support this positioning, while the 35.5% probability of no change highlights ongoing uncertainty around the September FOMC outcome and labor market trends.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volumen
$826,028Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year increase, driven largely by energy prices, have reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve tightening by year-end. With the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% and core inflation at 2.4% annually, market-implied odds favor a 25 basis point hike in December at 60.5%, reflecting slower disinflation and concerns over second-round effects amid resilient demand and AI-related investment. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and Wall Street forecasts for multiple hikes this year further support this positioning, while the 35.5% probability of no change highlights ongoing uncertainty around the September FOMC outcome and labor market trends.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$826,028Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year increase, driven largely by energy prices, have reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve tightening by year-end. With the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% and core inflation at 2.4% annually, market-implied odds favor a 25 basis point hike in December at 60.5%, reflecting slower disinflation and concerns over second-round effects amid resilient demand and AI-related investment. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and Wall Street forecasts for multiple hikes this year further support this positioning, while the 35.5% probability of no change highlights ongoing uncertainty around the September FOMC outcome and labor market trends.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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