The September 16 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%—the first hike since 2023—combined with the updated dot plot showing a 4.1% median endpoint for 2026, has anchored trader consensus around two total 25-basis-point moves for the year. Persistent inflation pressures, including August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and elevated PCE forecasts revised higher to 3.7% for 2026, along with energy shocks and tariff effects, support the hawkish tilt. Labor market resilience and solid growth projections further reduce odds of fewer hikes, while upcoming data releases and the next FOMC meetings will test whether three or more hikes gain traction in market-implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántas subidas de tasas de la Fed en 2026?
¿Cuántas subidas de tasas de la Fed en 2026?
2 (50 puntos básicos) 64%
1 (25 pb) 19%
3 (75 puntos básicos) 14.7%
4 (100 puntos básicos) 1.8%
$465,145 Vol.
$465,145 Vol.
31 dic 2026
1 (25 pb)
19%
2 (50 puntos básicos)
64%
3 (75 puntos básicos)
15%
4 (100 puntos básicos)
2%
5+ (125+ puntos básicos)
<1%
2 (50 puntos básicos) 64%
1 (25 pb) 19%
3 (75 puntos básicos) 14.7%
4 (100 puntos básicos) 1.8%
$465,145 Vol.
$465,145 Vol.
31 dic 2026
1 (25 pb)
$78,802 Vol.
19%
2 (50 puntos básicos)
$106,257 Vol.
64%
3 (75 puntos básicos)
$74,285 Vol.
15%
4 (100 puntos básicos)
$34,959 Vol.
2%
5+ (125+ puntos básicos)
$30,424 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.The September 16 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%—the first hike since 2023—combined with the updated dot plot showing a 4.1% median endpoint for 2026, has anchored trader consensus around two total 25-basis-point moves for the year. Persistent inflation pressures, including August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and elevated PCE forecasts revised higher to 3.7% for 2026, along with energy shocks and tariff effects, support the hawkish tilt. Labor market resilience and solid growth projections further reduce odds of fewer hikes, while upcoming data releases and the next FOMC meetings will test whether three or more hikes gain traction in market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Mercado abierto: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Volumen
$465,145Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.The September 16 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%—the first hike since 2023—combined with the updated dot plot showing a 4.1% median endpoint for 2026, has anchored trader consensus around two total 25-basis-point moves for the year. Persistent inflation pressures, including August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and elevated PCE forecasts revised higher to 3.7% for 2026, along with energy shocks and tariff effects, support the hawkish tilt. Labor market resilience and solid growth projections further reduce odds of fewer hikes, while upcoming data releases and the next FOMC meetings will test whether three or more hikes gain traction in market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$465,145Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The September 16 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%—the first hike since 2023—combined with the updated dot plot showing a 4.1% median endpoint for 2026, has anchored trader consensus around two total 25-basis-point moves for the year. Persistent inflation pressures, including August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and elevated PCE forecasts revised higher to 3.7% for 2026, along with energy shocks and tariff effects, support the hawkish tilt. Labor market resilience and solid growth projections further reduce odds of fewer hikes, while upcoming data releases and the next FOMC meetings will test whether three or more hikes gain traction in market-implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes