**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market have driven the 96.6% market-implied probability on a Hike–Pause–Hike sequence for the September–December FOMC decisions.** The September 16 meeting delivered the expected 25 basis point hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range, while the October 28 decision held rates steady amid two dissents favoring further tightening. October data showed nonfarm payrolls rising 165,000 with unemployment at 4.1% and core CPI pressures remaining firm, aligning with the September SEP median projection of 4.125% by year-end. Traders price the December 9 meeting—with fresh projections and dot plot—as the most likely venue for the second hike, reflecting aggregated capital-backed sentiment on the need for additional policy firming. A material downside surprise in November employment or inflation prints could still shift odds toward a pause.