Recent U.S. labor market resilience, including August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, alongside headline CPI near 3.3–3.5% year-over-year and elevated PCE readings, has shifted trader consensus toward potential near-term tightening. The federal funds rate sits at 3.50–3.75%, and market-implied odds reflect this data-driven reassessment, with September hike probabilities elevated ahead of the FOMC’s September 15–16 meeting that includes updated Summary of Economic Projections. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and a June dot plot showing more participants favoring rate increases by year-end further differentiate hike-inclusive paths from the leading Pause-Pause-Pause outcome at 30.5%. October and December decisions will hinge on subsequent inflation and employment releases, sustaining the dispersed probability distribution across sequences.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPausa–pausa–pausa 31%
Subida–Pausa–Pausa 22%
Subida–subida–pausa 14%
Subir–Pausar–Subir 10%
$13,668 Vol.
$13,668 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Subir–Pausar–Subir
10%
Subida–Pausa–Pausa
22%
Subida–Subida–Subida
6%
Subida–subida–pausa
14%
Pausar–Pausar–Subir
6%
Pausa–pausa–pausa
31%
Pausa–Subida–Subida
4%
Pausa–Subida–Pausa
8%
Otro
7%
Pausa–pausa–pausa 31%
Subida–Pausa–Pausa 22%
Subida–subida–pausa 14%
Subir–Pausar–Subir 10%
$13,668 Vol.
$13,668 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Subir–Pausar–Subir
$314 Vol.
10%
Subida–Pausa–Pausa
$499 Vol.
22%
Subida–Subida–Subida
$216 Vol.
6%
Subida–subida–pausa
$429 Vol.
14%
Pausar–Pausar–Subir
$468 Vol.
6%
Pausa–pausa–pausa
$10,920 Vol.
31%
Pausa–Subida–Subida
$237 Vol.
4%
Pausa–Subida–Pausa
$336 Vol.
8%
Otro
$249 Vol.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. labor market resilience, including August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, alongside headline CPI near 3.3–3.5% year-over-year and elevated PCE readings, has shifted trader consensus toward potential near-term tightening. The federal funds rate sits at 3.50–3.75%, and market-implied odds reflect this data-driven reassessment, with September hike probabilities elevated ahead of the FOMC’s September 15–16 meeting that includes updated Summary of Economic Projections. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and a June dot plot showing more participants favoring rate increases by year-end further differentiate hike-inclusive paths from the leading Pause-Pause-Pause outcome at 30.5%. October and December decisions will hinge on subsequent inflation and employment releases, sustaining the dispersed probability distribution across sequences.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volumen
$13,668Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. labor market resilience, including August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, alongside headline CPI near 3.3–3.5% year-over-year and elevated PCE readings, has shifted trader consensus toward potential near-term tightening. The federal funds rate sits at 3.50–3.75%, and market-implied odds reflect this data-driven reassessment, with September hike probabilities elevated ahead of the FOMC’s September 15–16 meeting that includes updated Summary of Economic Projections. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and a June dot plot showing more participants favoring rate increases by year-end further differentiate hike-inclusive paths from the leading Pause-Pause-Pause outcome at 30.5%. October and December decisions will hinge on subsequent inflation and employment releases, sustaining the dispersed probability distribution across sequences.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$13,668Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. labor market resilience, including August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, alongside headline CPI near 3.3–3.5% year-over-year and elevated PCE readings, has shifted trader consensus toward potential near-term tightening. The federal funds rate sits at 3.50–3.75%, and market-implied odds reflect this data-driven reassessment, with September hike probabilities elevated ahead of the FOMC’s September 15–16 meeting that includes updated Summary of Economic Projections. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and a June dot plot showing more participants favoring rate increases by year-end further differentiate hike-inclusive paths from the leading Pause-Pause-Pause outcome at 30.5%. October and December decisions will hinge on subsequent inflation and employment releases, sustaining the dispersed probability distribution across sequences.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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