Recent weak September jobs data showing just 29,000 payroll gains and unemployment rising to 4.2% has lowered implied odds of an October 27-28 FOMC hike to around 18%, shifting trader focus toward a pause amid cooling labor conditions. Elevated inflation, with PCE near 3.7% and core at 3.4%, continues to support the Fed's post-September 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75%-4% range and median dot-plot expectations for one additional increase by year-end. This dynamic underpins the 60% market-implied probability for a Hike-Pause-Hike sequence through December, while softer data and official comments on assessing transmission effects introduce uncertainty around the December meeting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoView resolved

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