Amid escalated Israel-Iran tensions after Tehran's October 1 missile attack on Israel, the IDF's October 26 airstrikes targeted Iranian military bases and missile facilities near Tehran and western provinces, explicitly sparing energy infrastructure like Kharg Island—the Persian Gulf terminal handling over 90% of Iran's sanctioned oil exports—to curb escalation and prevent global oil price surges. U.S. diplomatic pressure reinforced this restraint, with benchmarks like Brent crude holding steady post-strikes. Iran issued verbal retaliation threats but no major counteraction. Traders eye proxy risks from Hezbollah or Houthis, potential further diplomacy via UN channels, and any signals of de-escalation or renewed barrages that could shift strike probabilities before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado$679,639 Vol.

31 de marzo
7%

30 de abril
31%
$679,639 Vol.

31 de marzo
7%

30 de abril
31%
Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Feb 28, 2026, 1:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalated Israel-Iran tensions after Tehran's October 1 missile attack on Israel, the IDF's October 26 airstrikes targeted Iranian military bases and missile facilities near Tehran and western provinces, explicitly sparing energy infrastructure like Kharg Island—the Persian Gulf terminal handling over 90% of Iran's sanctioned oil exports—to curb escalation and prevent global oil price surges. U.S. diplomatic pressure reinforced this restraint, with benchmarks like Brent crude holding steady post-strikes. Iran issued verbal retaliation threats but no major counteraction. Traders eye proxy risks from Hezbollah or Houthis, potential further diplomacy via UN channels, and any signals of de-escalation or renewed barrages that could shift strike probabilities before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes