US federal authorities captured Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 raid and charged him with narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, and weapons offenses; a new indictment unsealed in early October added torture allegations tied to American detainees. His trial is scheduled for June 2027 in Manhattan federal court, where he has pleaded not guilty and filed motions challenging prosecution on immunity grounds. These proceedings, combined with the extended pre-trial detention in Brooklyn and Venezuela’s ongoing political transition under interim leadership, underpin trader consensus around a 54.5% chance of no prison time. Conviction risks substantial sentences, supporting the 28.5% probability assigned to 60+ years, while lower brackets reflect narrower pathways to moderate terms amid ongoing legal and diplomatic developments.