Ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro's recent March 26 federal court appearance in New York, where a judge refused to dismiss narco-terrorism and drug trafficking indictments despite defense motions over his January U.S. military capture and sanctions-blocked legal funding, sustains trader uncertainty reflected in tight odds between no prison time (39%) and 60+ years (31.5%). Prosecutors pursue a rare statute carrying life sentences for alleged cocaine conspiracies aiding cartels, but defenses claim sovereign immunity and kidnapping violations, with Maduro isolated in Brooklyn's MDC jail awaiting trial potentially in 2027. A plea deal, funding resolution, or evidentiary rulings could separate outcomes, while ICC probes into Venezuelan human rights abuses remain separate and preliminary.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Hora de prisión de Maduro?
¿Hora de prisión de Maduro?
Sin tiempo en prisión 39%
60+ 24%
40–60 15%
20–40 10.5%
$445,643 Vol.
$445,643 Vol.
31 dic 2027
Sin tiempo en prisión
39%
<20
8%
20–40
11%
40–60
15%
60+
32%
Sin tiempo en prisión 39%
60+ 24%
40–60 15%
20–40 10.5%
$445,643 Vol.
$445,643 Vol.
31 dic 2027
Sin tiempo en prisión
$349,260 Vol.
39%
<20
$27,783 Vol.
8%
20–40
$27,069 Vol.
11%
40–60
$12,825 Vol.
15%
60+
$28,706 Vol.
32%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro's recent March 26 federal court appearance in New York, where a judge refused to dismiss narco-terrorism and drug trafficking indictments despite defense motions over his January U.S. military capture and sanctions-blocked legal funding, sustains trader uncertainty reflected in tight odds between no prison time (39%) and 60+ years (31.5%). Prosecutors pursue a rare statute carrying life sentences for alleged cocaine conspiracies aiding cartels, but defenses claim sovereign immunity and kidnapping violations, with Maduro isolated in Brooklyn's MDC jail awaiting trial potentially in 2027. A plea deal, funding resolution, or evidentiary rulings could separate outcomes, while ICC probes into Venezuelan human rights abuses remain separate and preliminary.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
Volumen
$445,643Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro's recent March 26 federal court appearance in New York, where a judge refused to dismiss narco-terrorism and drug trafficking indictments despite defense motions over his January U.S. military capture and sanctions-blocked legal funding, sustains trader uncertainty reflected in tight odds between no prison time (39%) and 60+ years (31.5%). Prosecutors pursue a rare statute carrying life sentences for alleged cocaine conspiracies aiding cartels, but defenses claim sovereign immunity and kidnapping violations, with Maduro isolated in Brooklyn's MDC jail awaiting trial potentially in 2027. A plea deal, funding resolution, or evidentiary rulings could separate outcomes, while ICC probes into Venezuelan human rights abuses remain separate and preliminary.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$445,643Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro's recent March 26 federal court appearance in New York, where a judge refused to dismiss narco-terrorism and drug trafficking indictments despite defense motions over his January U.S. military capture and sanctions-blocked legal funding, sustains trader uncertainty reflected in tight odds between no prison time (39%) and 60+ years (31.5%). Prosecutors pursue a rare statute carrying life sentences for alleged cocaine conspiracies aiding cartels, but defenses claim sovereign immunity and kidnapping violations, with Maduro isolated in Brooklyn's MDC jail awaiting trial potentially in 2027. A plea deal, funding resolution, or evidentiary rulings could separate outcomes, while ICC probes into Venezuelan human rights abuses remain separate and preliminary.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes