Traders' 75.5% implied probability for "No" on Nicolás Maduro being found guilty of all counts in his Southern District of New York narcoterrorism and cocaine importation conspiracy indictment reflects the case's early pre-trial stage and formidable defense challenges. Following his January 2026 not-guilty plea after US capture and ouster from Venezuela's presidency, a March 26 federal hearing saw Judge Alvin Hellerstein deny dismissal motions citing arrest legality and head-of-state immunity claims, while questioning US sanctions blocking Venezuelan funds for Maduro's legal fees—potentially raising fair-trial concerns. The rarely successful narcoterrorism statute, spanning four counts, faces a lengthy trial ahead, with traders anticipating possible acquittals, plea deals, or convictions on fewer charges amid political complexities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$100,235 Vol.
$100,235 Vol.
31 dic 2027
Sí
$100,235 Vol.
$100,235 Vol.
31 dic 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders' 75.5% implied probability for "No" on Nicolás Maduro being found guilty of all counts in his Southern District of New York narcoterrorism and cocaine importation conspiracy indictment reflects the case's early pre-trial stage and formidable defense challenges. Following his January 2026 not-guilty plea after US capture and ouster from Venezuela's presidency, a March 26 federal hearing saw Judge Alvin Hellerstein deny dismissal motions citing arrest legality and head-of-state immunity claims, while questioning US sanctions blocking Venezuelan funds for Maduro's legal fees—potentially raising fair-trial concerns. The rarely successful narcoterrorism statute, spanning four counts, faces a lengthy trial ahead, with traders anticipating possible acquittals, plea deals, or convictions on fewer charges amid political complexities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ET
Volumen
$100,235Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders' 75.5% implied probability for "No" on Nicolás Maduro being found guilty of all counts in his Southern District of New York narcoterrorism and cocaine importation conspiracy indictment reflects the case's early pre-trial stage and formidable defense challenges. Following his January 2026 not-guilty plea after US capture and ouster from Venezuela's presidency, a March 26 federal hearing saw Judge Alvin Hellerstein deny dismissal motions citing arrest legality and head-of-state immunity claims, while questioning US sanctions blocking Venezuelan funds for Maduro's legal fees—potentially raising fair-trial concerns. The rarely successful narcoterrorism statute, spanning four counts, faces a lengthy trial ahead, with traders anticipating possible acquittals, plea deals, or convictions on fewer charges amid political complexities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$100,235Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' 75.5% implied probability for "No" on Nicolás Maduro being found guilty of all counts in his Southern District of New York narcoterrorism and cocaine importation conspiracy indictment reflects the case's early pre-trial stage and formidable defense challenges. Following his January 2026 not-guilty plea after US capture and ouster from Venezuela's presidency, a March 26 federal hearing saw Judge Alvin Hellerstein deny dismissal motions citing arrest legality and head-of-state immunity claims, while questioning US sanctions blocking Venezuelan funds for Maduro's legal fees—potentially raising fair-trial concerns. The rarely successful narcoterrorism statute, spanning four counts, faces a lengthy trial ahead, with traders anticipating possible acquittals, plea deals, or convictions on fewer charges amid political complexities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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