Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tightly contested race for the next Trump Cabinet departure before 2027, with Small Business Administration Administrator Kelly Loeffler leading at 47% amid recent scrutiny over political donations and her relatively junior role, while Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and others cluster at 40.5% due to department turmoil. Chavez-DeRemer's position has weakened from March investigations into misconduct prompting top aides' resignations, affair allegations against her bodyguard, and White House ultimatums, echoing first-term high turnover patterns despite stability through 2025. Vance and Rubio odds stem from 2028 succession rumors favoring Rubio. Escalating probes, official announcements, or midterm positioning could create separation, as no exits have materialized post-Kristi Noem.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHoward Lutnick 39%
Pete Hegseth 35%
Chris Wright 34%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer 34%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Howard Lutnick
39%
Pete Hegseth
35%
Chris Wright
34%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
34%
Tulsi Gabbard
34%
Susie Wiles
33%
Doug Collins
32%
Russell T. Vought
32%
John Ratcliffe
32%
Doug Burgum
31%
Mike Waltz
31%
Sean Duffy
29%
Jamieson Greer
29%
Scott Bessent
28%
None before 2027
21%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
9%
Lee Zeldin
8%
J.D. Vance
3%
Marco Rubio
18%
Brooke Rollins
32%
Scott Turner
31%
Linda McMahon
32%
Kelly Loeffler
28%
Howard Lutnick 39%
Pete Hegseth 35%
Chris Wright 34%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer 34%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Howard Lutnick
$5 Vol.
39%
Pete Hegseth
$31 Vol.
35%
Chris Wright
$5 Vol.
34%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$78 Vol.
34%
Tulsi Gabbard
$6 Vol.
34%
Susie Wiles
$6 Vol.
33%
Doug Collins
$5 Vol.
32%
Russell T. Vought
$6 Vol.
32%
John Ratcliffe
$5 Vol.
32%
Doug Burgum
$5 Vol.
31%
Mike Waltz
$5 Vol.
31%
Sean Duffy
$5 Vol.
29%
Jamieson Greer
$5 Vol.
29%
Scott Bessent
$5 Vol.
28%
None before 2027
$6 Vol.
21%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$8 Vol.
9%
Lee Zeldin
$534 Vol.
8%
J.D. Vance
$6 Vol.
3%
Marco Rubio
$6 Vol.
18%
Brooke Rollins
$5 Vol.
32%
Scott Turner
$5 Vol.
31%
Linda McMahon
$5 Vol.
32%
Kelly Loeffler
$5 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tightly contested race for the next Trump Cabinet departure before 2027, with Small Business Administration Administrator Kelly Loeffler leading at 47% amid recent scrutiny over political donations and her relatively junior role, while Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and others cluster at 40.5% due to department turmoil. Chavez-DeRemer's position has weakened from March investigations into misconduct prompting top aides' resignations, affair allegations against her bodyguard, and White House ultimatums, echoing first-term high turnover patterns despite stability through 2025. Vance and Rubio odds stem from 2028 succession rumors favoring Rubio. Escalating probes, official announcements, or midterm positioning could create separation, as no exits have materialized post-Kristi Noem.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
Volumen
$754Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tightly contested race for the next Trump Cabinet departure before 2027, with Small Business Administration Administrator Kelly Loeffler leading at 47% amid recent scrutiny over political donations and her relatively junior role, while Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and others cluster at 40.5% due to department turmoil. Chavez-DeRemer's position has weakened from March investigations into misconduct prompting top aides' resignations, affair allegations against her bodyguard, and White House ultimatums, echoing first-term high turnover patterns despite stability through 2025. Vance and Rubio odds stem from 2028 succession rumors favoring Rubio. Escalating probes, official announcements, or midterm positioning could create separation, as no exits have materialized post-Kristi Noem.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volumen
$754Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tightly contested race for the next Trump Cabinet departure before 2027, with Small Business Administration Administrator Kelly Loeffler leading at 47% amid recent scrutiny over political donations and her relatively junior role, while Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and others cluster at 40.5% due to department turmoil. Chavez-DeRemer's position has weakened from March investigations into misconduct prompting top aides' resignations, affair allegations against her bodyguard, and White House ultimatums, echoing first-term high turnover patterns despite stability through 2025. Vance and Rubio odds stem from 2028 succession rumors favoring Rubio. Escalating probes, official announcements, or midterm positioning could create separation, as no exits have materialized post-Kristi Noem.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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