U.S. Vice President JD Vance's bilateral meetings with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in Budapest on April 7-8, announced by the White House this week, drive trader consensus ahead of Hungary's April 12 parliamentary elections, where Orbán's Fidesz party trails challenger Péter Magyar's Tisza in recent polls, especially among youth voters. Vance plans remarks highlighting the U.S.-Hungary partnership, fueling high implied probabilities for mentions of Trump (88%), the EU (86%), Hungary/Hungarian 8+ times (79%), and Orbán/Viktor 4+ times (68%), based on their aligned nationalist stances, Orbán's EU clashes, and bilateral focus. Lower odds reflect less expected emphasis on topics like Biden (13%) or elections (29%). Markets hinge on verbatim statements during these events.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHungary / Hungarian 8+ times
75%
Russia / Ukraine 6+ times
45%
Biden 5+ times
13%
Viktor / Orbán 4+ times
68%
Election 4+ times
30%
God 3+ times
42%
Oil 2+ times
76%
Crazy
36%
Venezuela
30%
Trump
88%
Slovakia
36%
Nuclear
54%
Rigged
30%
EU / European Union
86%
$2,778 Vol.
Hungary / Hungarian 8+ times
75%
Russia / Ukraine 6+ times
45%
Biden 5+ times
13%
Viktor / Orbán 4+ times
68%
Election 4+ times
30%
God 3+ times
42%
Oil 2+ times
76%
Crazy
36%
Venezuela
30%
Trump
88%
Slovakia
36%
Nuclear
54%
Rigged
30%
EU / European Union
86%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during his appearance at events featuring the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, on April 7 and April 8, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
This market is explicitly about events featuring both JD Vance and Viktor Orbán. All such events featuring both on these dates count. Speeches, events, or comments which feature one named individual but not the other, will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the events contain a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.
If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by April 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 3, 2026, 7:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during his appearance at events featuring the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, on April 7 and April 8, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
This market is explicitly about events featuring both JD Vance and Viktor Orbán. All such events featuring both on these dates count. Speeches, events, or comments which feature one named individual but not the other, will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the events contain a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.
If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by April 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. Vice President JD Vance's bilateral meetings with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in Budapest on April 7-8, announced by the White House this week, drive trader consensus ahead of Hungary's April 12 parliamentary elections, where Orbán's Fidesz party trails challenger Péter Magyar's Tisza in recent polls, especially among youth voters. Vance plans remarks highlighting the U.S.-Hungary partnership, fueling high implied probabilities for mentions of Trump (88%), the EU (86%), Hungary/Hungarian 8+ times (79%), and Orbán/Viktor 4+ times (68%), based on their aligned nationalist stances, Orbán's EU clashes, and bilateral focus. Lower odds reflect less expected emphasis on topics like Biden (13%) or elections (29%). Markets hinge on verbatim statements during these events.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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