Recent U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit narrowing sharply in early 2026 after the 2025 tariff increases raised import costs and prompted supply-chain adjustments, with year-to-date figures running well below 2025 levels. Monthly readings remain in the $55–60 billion range, while services surpluses continue to offset part of the goods gap. Macroeconomic drivers—domestic saving-investment balances, dollar movements, and slower global demand—limit how far the annual total can fall, keeping trader consensus centered on the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion bins as the most probable outcomes for the full year. Further separation hinges on whether tariff effects persist through the remainder of 2026 or whether fiscal stimulus, currency shifts, or stronger import demand for AI-related equipment push the annual figure higher.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$21,075 Vol.
$21,075 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
8%
500–600B
4%
600–700B
10%
700–800B
10%
800–900 mil millones
45%
900 mil millones–1 billón
40%
1T–1,1T
6%
1,1 billones+
5%
$21,075 Vol.
$21,075 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
$16,638 Vol.
8%
500–600B
$413 Vol.
4%
600–700B
$495 Vol.
10%
700–800B
$456 Vol.
10%
800–900 mil millones
$1,008 Vol.
45%
900 mil millones–1 billón
$984 Vol.
40%
1T–1,1T
$447 Vol.
6%
1,1 billones+
$635 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit narrowing sharply in early 2026 after the 2025 tariff increases raised import costs and prompted supply-chain adjustments, with year-to-date figures running well below 2025 levels. Monthly readings remain in the $55–60 billion range, while services surpluses continue to offset part of the goods gap. Macroeconomic drivers—domestic saving-investment balances, dollar movements, and slower global demand—limit how far the annual total can fall, keeping trader consensus centered on the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion bins as the most probable outcomes for the full year. Further separation hinges on whether tariff effects persist through the remainder of 2026 or whether fiscal stimulus, currency shifts, or stronger import demand for AI-related equipment push the annual figure higher.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$21,075Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit narrowing sharply in early 2026 after the 2025 tariff increases raised import costs and prompted supply-chain adjustments, with year-to-date figures running well below 2025 levels. Monthly readings remain in the $55–60 billion range, while services surpluses continue to offset part of the goods gap. Macroeconomic drivers—domestic saving-investment balances, dollar movements, and slower global demand—limit how far the annual total can fall, keeping trader consensus centered on the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion bins as the most probable outcomes for the full year. Further separation hinges on whether tariff effects persist through the remainder of 2026 or whether fiscal stimulus, currency shifts, or stronger import demand for AI-related equipment push the annual figure higher.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volumen
$21,075Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit narrowing sharply in early 2026 after the 2025 tariff increases raised import costs and prompted supply-chain adjustments, with year-to-date figures running well below 2025 levels. Monthly readings remain in the $55–60 billion range, while services surpluses continue to offset part of the goods gap. Macroeconomic drivers—domestic saving-investment balances, dollar movements, and slower global demand—limit how far the annual total can fall, keeping trader consensus centered on the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion bins as the most probable outcomes for the full year. Further separation hinges on whether tariff effects persist through the remainder of 2026 or whether fiscal stimulus, currency shifts, or stronger import demand for AI-related equipment push the annual figure higher.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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