Recent tariff adjustments, including the Supreme Court’s February ruling striking down several broad levies, alongside ongoing trade policy shifts, have narrowed the goods and services deficit year-to-date by 55 percent compared with 2025. Monthly figures through March 2026 show a $700 billion trailing twelve-month total, supported by record energy exports amid the Iran conflict and rising capital goods shipments tied to AI infrastructure. These developments, combined with faster export growth in petroleum and industrial supplies relative to import surges in vehicles and consumer goods, underpin trader consensus around an 800–900 billion annual outcome for the full year. Continued adjustments to supply chains and dollar movements could still influence the final tally.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$21,075 Vol.
$21,075 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
8%
500–600B
4%
600–700B
8%
700–800B
10%
800–900 mil millones
46%
900 mil millones–1 billón
35%
1T–1,1T
6%
1,1 billones+
4%
$21,075 Vol.
$21,075 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
$16,638 Vol.
8%
500–600B
$413 Vol.
4%
600–700B
$495 Vol.
8%
700–800B
$456 Vol.
10%
800–900 mil millones
$1,008 Vol.
46%
900 mil millones–1 billón
$984 Vol.
35%
1T–1,1T
$447 Vol.
6%
1,1 billones+
$635 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent tariff adjustments, including the Supreme Court’s February ruling striking down several broad levies, alongside ongoing trade policy shifts, have narrowed the goods and services deficit year-to-date by 55 percent compared with 2025. Monthly figures through March 2026 show a $700 billion trailing twelve-month total, supported by record energy exports amid the Iran conflict and rising capital goods shipments tied to AI infrastructure. These developments, combined with faster export growth in petroleum and industrial supplies relative to import surges in vehicles and consumer goods, underpin trader consensus around an 800–900 billion annual outcome for the full year. Continued adjustments to supply chains and dollar movements could still influence the final tally.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$21,075Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent tariff adjustments, including the Supreme Court’s February ruling striking down several broad levies, alongside ongoing trade policy shifts, have narrowed the goods and services deficit year-to-date by 55 percent compared with 2025. Monthly figures through March 2026 show a $700 billion trailing twelve-month total, supported by record energy exports amid the Iran conflict and rising capital goods shipments tied to AI infrastructure. These developments, combined with faster export growth in petroleum and industrial supplies relative to import surges in vehicles and consumer goods, underpin trader consensus around an 800–900 billion annual outcome for the full year. Continued adjustments to supply chains and dollar movements could still influence the final tally.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volumen
$21,075Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent tariff adjustments, including the Supreme Court’s February ruling striking down several broad levies, alongside ongoing trade policy shifts, have narrowed the goods and services deficit year-to-date by 55 percent compared with 2025. Monthly figures through March 2026 show a $700 billion trailing twelve-month total, supported by record energy exports amid the Iran conflict and rising capital goods shipments tied to AI infrastructure. These developments, combined with faster export growth in petroleum and industrial supplies relative to import surges in vehicles and consumer goods, underpin trader consensus around an 800–900 billion annual outcome for the full year. Continued adjustments to supply chains and dollar movements could still influence the final tally.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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