President-elect Trump's tariff threats target Canada over fentanyl trafficking and illegal immigration but specify 25% duties rather than 100%, with no announced plans for the latter by June 30. A recent phone call between Trump and Prime Minister Trudeau signaled potential de-escalation, tempering escalation risks under the USMCA trade framework. Extreme 100% tariffs would require unprecedented executive action via tools like Section 232 or IEEPA, facing economic blowback from intertwined supply chains and congressional pushback. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, though post-inauguration border crises or retaliatory trade disputes could prompt shifts before the deadline.
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Jun 30, 2026
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On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 24, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
Volumen
$39,099Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 24, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volumen
$39,099Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 24, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President-elect Trump's tariff threats target Canada over fentanyl trafficking and illegal immigration but specify 25% duties rather than 100%, with no announced plans for the latter by June 30. A recent phone call between Trump and Prime Minister Trudeau signaled potential de-escalation, tempering escalation risks under the USMCA trade framework. Extreme 100% tariffs would require unprecedented executive action via tools like Section 232 or IEEPA, facing economic blowback from intertwined supply chains and congressional pushback. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, though post-inauguration border crises or retaliatory trade disputes could prompt shifts before the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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