Polymarket traders have reached virtual unanimity on a Bank of Mexico (Banxico) interest rate decrease at its March 21 meeting, with decrease shares trading at 100% implied probability amid sustained disinflation. Headline CPI eased to 4.40% year-over-year in February from 4.43% in January, while core inflation dipped to 4.54%, firmly within Banxico's 3% ±1% target band and supporting the central bank's recent 50 basis point cut to 11% in February—the first easing since 2021. Labor market softening and moderating services inflation reinforce trader consensus on further monetary policy accommodation. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly hot upcoming CPI data on March 8 or persistent peso weakness prompting caution, though current dynamics heavily favor continuation of the rate cut path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Decisión del Banco de México en marzo?
¿Decisión del Banco de México en marzo?
Disminución 100.0%
Sin cambios <1%
Aumento <1%
$532,732 Vol.
$532,732 Vol.
Mar 26, 2026
Disminución
Sí
Sin cambios
No
Aumento
No
Disminución 100.0%
Sin cambios <1%
Aumento <1%
$532,732 Vol.
$532,732 Vol.
Mar 26, 2026
Disminución
$207,997 Vol.
Sí
Sin cambios
$178,313 Vol.
No
Aumento
$146,422 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's March 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for March 26, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders have reached virtual unanimity on a Bank of Mexico (Banxico) interest rate decrease at its March 21 meeting, with decrease shares trading at 100% implied probability amid sustained disinflation. Headline CPI eased to 4.40% year-over-year in February from 4.43% in January, while core inflation dipped to 4.54%, firmly within Banxico's 3% ±1% target band and supporting the central bank's recent 50 basis point cut to 11% in February—the first easing since 2021. Labor market softening and moderating services inflation reinforce trader consensus on further monetary policy accommodation. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly hot upcoming CPI data on March 8 or persistent peso weakness prompting caution, though current dynamics heavily favor continuation of the rate cut path.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's March 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for March 26, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for March 26, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
Volumen
$532,732Fecha de finalización
Mar 26, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado propuesto: Sí
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Sí
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's March 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for March 26, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders have reached virtual unanimity on a Bank of Mexico (Banxico) interest rate decrease at its March 21 meeting, with decrease shares trading at 100% implied probability amid sustained disinflation. Headline CPI eased to 4.40% year-over-year in February from 4.43% in January, while core inflation dipped to 4.54%, firmly within Banxico's 3% ±1% target band and supporting the central bank's recent 50 basis point cut to 11% in February—the first easing since 2021. Labor market softening and moderating services inflation reinforce trader consensus on further monetary policy accommodation. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly hot upcoming CPI data on March 8 or persistent peso weakness prompting caution, though current dynamics heavily favor continuation of the rate cut path.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's March 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for March 26, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for March 26, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$532,732Fecha de finalización
Mar 26, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado propuesto: Sí
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Sí
Polymarket traders have reached virtual unanimity on a Bank of Mexico (Banxico) interest rate decrease at its March 21 meeting, with decrease shares trading at 100% implied probability amid sustained disinflation. Headline CPI eased to 4.40% year-over-year in February from 4.43% in January, while core inflation dipped to 4.54%, firmly within Banxico's 3% ±1% target band and supporting the central bank's recent 50 basis point cut to 11% in February—the first easing since 2021. Labor market softening and moderating services inflation reinforce trader consensus on further monetary policy accommodation. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly hot upcoming CPI data on March 8 or persistent peso weakness prompting caution, though current dynamics heavily favor continuation of the rate cut path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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