TikTok's U.S. operations were divested in late January 2026 into a new majority American-owned joint venture, TikTok USDS, averting a federal ban under national security legislation mandating separation from Chinese parent ByteDance. Leading investors—Oracle (15% stake), Silver Lake (15%), and Abu Dhabi-based MGX (15%)—now control the platform's data and algorithms, with ByteDance holding a minority 19.9% share to address privacy concerns. This consortium deal, finalized after years of deadline extensions and legal battles, reflects trader consensus on regulatory resolution amid competitive pressures from Meta and YouTube. No major developments in the past 30 days; watch for integration updates, user migration trends, or potential antitrust reviews as key catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAppLovin’s latest podcast confirms the social‑platform project is moving forward, stabilizing the market and nudging the “Yes” probability back up
AppLovin rises to 3%2%
AppLovin’s latest podcast confirms the social‑platform project is moving forward, stabilizing the market and nudging the “Yes” probability back up
TechCrunch notes a renewed rumor that Walmart may re‑enter negotiations after a “strategic review” of its digital‑media investments, sparking a short‑term rally
Walmart jumps to 27%5%
TechCrunch notes a renewed rumor that Walmart may re‑enter negotiations after a “strategic review” of its digital‑media investments, sparking a short‑term rally
Polymarket notes a viral fake‑news surge about Elon Musk’s “Tesla phone” briefly distracts attention from TikTok‑related speculation, causing the “Yes” odds to dip to a low
AppLovin drops to 1%8%
Polymarket notes a viral fake‑news surge about Elon Musk’s “Tesla phone” briefly distracts attention from TikTok‑related speculation, causing the “Yes” odds to dip to a low
Renewed speculation about Amazon’s potential indirect influence through commerce partnerships with TikTok, but no acquisition deal, leading to a modest
Amazon jumps to 11%6%
Renewed speculation about Amazon’s potential indirect influence through commerce partnerships with TikTok, but no acquisition deal, leading to a modest
MoneyCheck highlights AppLovin’s 2 % share rise after confirming a podcast‑revealed plan to launch a competing social platform, pushing the “Yes” probability higher
AppLovin jumps to 9%5%
MoneyCheck highlights AppLovin’s 2 % share rise after confirming a podcast‑revealed plan to launch a competing social platform, pushing the “Yes” probability higher
The New York Times reports Elon Musk’s verified TikTok account posts promotional content from his companies, fueling market speculation on Musk’s intentions regarding TikTok
Elon Musk / X (Twitter) dips to 3%4%
The New York Times reports Elon Musk’s verified TikTok account posts promotional content from his companies, fueling market speculation on Musk’s intentions regarding TikTok
Verified TikTok account with @elonmusk handle posts first video, signaling Musk’s engagement with TikTok platform and sparking speculation about strategic moves
Elon Musk / X (Twitter) rises to 7%2%
Verified TikTok account with @elonmusk handle posts first video, signaling Musk’s engagement with TikTok platform and sparking speculation about strategic moves
TikTok and Musk deny active discussions or deals, with TikTok dismissing acquisition rumors as "pure fiction," leading to a steep
Elon Musk / X (Twitter) plunges to 5%19%
TikTok and Musk deny active discussions or deals, with TikTok dismissing acquisition rumors as "pure fiction," leading to a steep
Bloomberg and other outlets report renewed speculation that Musk’s platform X could take over TikTok’s U.S. operations, causing a sharp
Elon Musk / X (Twitter) jumps to 24%10%
Bloomberg and other outlets report renewed speculation that Musk’s platform X could take over TikTok’s U.S. operations, causing a sharp
Market reacted to reports of Amazon’s partnership with TikTok Shop for integrated commerce, enhancing Amazon’s role in TikTok’s ecosystem but not ownership, causing a temporary
Amazon jumps to 13%10%
Market reacted to reports of Amazon’s partnership with TikTok Shop for integrated commerce, enhancing Amazon’s role in TikTok’s ecosystem but not ownership, causing a temporary
Datacenter Dynamics reports the White House is back‑in talks with Oracle and Microsoft, but explicitly states “Walmart is not involved in this latest deal,” causing a sharp
Walmart jumps to 18%12%
Datacenter Dynamics reports the White House is back‑in talks with Oracle and Microsoft, but explicitly states “Walmart is not involved in this latest deal,” causing a sharp sell‑off and a 12‑point drop the next day
FX Leaders notes AppLovin’s stock falls 40 % YTD after the bid collapse, but the new platform plan steadies the market, causing a modest rebound
AppLovin dips to 5%1%
FX Leaders notes AppLovin’s stock falls 40 % YTD after the bid collapse, but the new platform plan steadies the market, causing a modest rebound
Bloomberg reports AppLovin will build its own social‑networking platform after the failed TikTok acquisition, reviving investor hope and lifting the “Yes” odds
AppLovin rises to 6%4%
Bloomberg reports AppLovin will build its own social‑networking platform after the failed TikTok acquisition, reviving investor hope and lifting the “Yes” odds
AppLovin announces the sale of its mobile‑games portfolio for $800 million, refocusing on advertising and signaling that the TikTok deal is unlikely to close
AppLovin dips to 2%3%
AppLovin announces the sale of its mobile‑games portfolio for $800 million, refocusing on advertising and signaling that the TikTok deal is unlikely to close
Reuters notes U.S. lawmakers demanding scrutiny of the TikTok joint‑venture, citing investors such as Dell Family Office and “Walmart” among the backers, which dampened optimism
Walmart plunges to 6%21%
Reuters notes U.S. lawmakers demanding scrutiny of the TikTok joint‑venture, citing investors such as Dell Family Office and “Walmart” among the backers, which dampened optimism and pulled the
TikTok announced the official establishment of TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC with American investors, confirming the deal’s progress without Amazon’s involvement
Amazon rises to 5%2%
TikTok announced the official establishment of TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC with American investors, confirming the deal’s progress without Amazon’s involvement
TikTok finalizes deal to form new American entity with Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX
Meta dips to 3%2%
The deal closing transferred control of TikTok’s US user data and operations to the new joint venture, effectively ending speculation about Meta acquiring TikTok's US business and pushing the
AppLovin shares rise 2% after confirming timeline for its new social platform launch – Management gave a concrete rollout schedule, reviving belief that the company could still
AppLov1 jumps to 10%8%
AppLovin shares rise 2% after confirming timeline for its new social platform launch – Management gave a concrete rollout schedule, reviving belief that the company could still leverage TikTok‑related assets, pushing odds higher.
Short‑seller firm Fuzzy Panda accuses AppLovin of ad fraud and illegal child‑targeted ads, sparking a sharp sell‑off and dropping the “Yes” probability
AppLovin drops to 3%9%
Short‑seller firm Fuzzy Panda accuses AppLovin of ad fraud and illegal child‑targeted ads, sparking a sharp sell‑off and dropping the “Yes” probability
NPR reported TikTok’s internal memo confirming the US spin-off deal closing expected January 22, 2026, reinforcing the Oracle-led consortium’s control and reducing Amazon’s
Amazon dips to 3%3%
NPR reported TikTok’s internal memo confirming the US spin-off deal closing expected January 22, 2026, reinforcing the Oracle-led consortium’s control and reducing Amazon’s acquisition probability
TikTok signs deal to cede control of US business to American investor group including Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX
Meta rises to 5%1%
TikTok officially agreed to transfer majority control of its US operations to a consortium of American investors, signaling a concrete path away from a Meta acquisition and causing a modest
TikTok signed a deal to cede control of its US operations to a consortium led by Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX, officially excluding Amazon from the primary investor group, causing
Amazon plunges to 12%34%
TikTok signed a deal to cede control of its US operations to a consortium led by Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX, officially excluding Amazon from the primary investor group, causing a
Pattern Group (an Amazon-related ecommerce player) announced acquisition of NextWave, expanding TikTok Shop and creator commerce capabilities, signaling Amazon’s indirect
Amazon drops to 6%6%
Pattern Group (an Amazon-related ecommerce player) announced acquisition of NextWave, expanding TikTok Shop and creator commerce capabilities, signaling Amazon’s indirect involvement in TikTok commerce but not ownership
TikTok deal peaks at 51% as reports confirm binding agreements signed with a consortium including Oracle and Silver Lake, with Microsoft’s role unclear, causing a surge in
Microsoft surges to 51%46%
TikTok deal peaks at 51% as reports confirm binding agreements signed with a consortium including Oracle and Silver Lake, with Microsoft’s role unclear, causing a surge in acquisition speculation
Deadline extension for ByteDance to comply with US divestment demands or face a ban, increasing speculation about the deal’s success and potential buyers
Amazon jumps to 12%9%
Deadline extension for ByteDance to comply with US divestment demands or face a ban, increasing speculation about the deal’s success and potential buyers
41NBC News reveals Walmart is in talks to acquire AI‑startup R&A Data, highlighting Walmart’s broader push into TikTok‑related tech and prompting a modest
Walmart rises to 4%2%
41NBC News reveals Walmart is in talks to acquire AI‑startup R&A Data, highlighting Walmart’s broader push into TikTok‑related tech and prompting a modest
Bloomberg reports the SEC opens a probe into AppLovin’s data‑collection practices, raising regulatory concerns and nudging the “Yes” probability lower
AppLovin dips to 4%1%
Bloomberg reports the SEC opens a probe into AppLovin’s data‑collection practices, raising regulatory concerns and nudging the “Yes” probability lower
AppLovin submits a formal bid to acquire TikTok’s assets outside China, positioning itself as a leading contender in the U.S. sale process
AppLovin dips to 5%1%
AppLovin submits a formal bid to acquire TikTok’s assets outside China, positioning itself as a leading contender in the U.S. sale process
President Trump announced a preliminary agreement between the US and China to keep TikTok operating in the US, with a requirement for TikTok’s American assets to be transferred to
Amazon drops to 2%9%
President Trump announced a preliminary agreement between the US and China to keep TikTok operating in the US, with a requirement for TikTok’s American assets to be transferred to US owners, sparking initial market interest in acquisition bids including Amazon
President Trump extends TikTok ban deadline multiple times while negotiations continue for US ownership transfer
Meta drops to 3%7%
Trump's repeated extensions of the TikTok ban deadline delayed enforcement of the law requiring TikTok's US operations to be sold to American owners, creating uncertainty but reducing Meta's immediate acquisition prospects.
U.S.–China trade talks include discussions on TikTok’s control, raising uncertainty about a potential sale to Musk amid national security concerns
Elon Musk / X (Twitter) dips to 2%3%
U.S.–China trade talks include discussions on TikTok’s control, raising uncertainty about a potential sale to Musk amid national security concerns
Former President Trump publicly states Microsoft is in talks to acquire TikTok and expresses desire for a bidding war, raising market speculation about Microsoft’s involvement
Microsoft rises to 6%1%
Former President Trump publicly states Microsoft is in talks to acquire TikTok and expresses desire for a bidding war, raising market speculation about Microsoft’s involvement

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes