U.S. intelligence agencies' March 2026 assessment that China lacks a committed timeline for invading Taiwan—preferring unification through non-military means like coercion and diplomacy—has anchored trader consensus at 93.5% against an assault by September 30, reflecting robust deterrence from U.S. alliances and Taiwan's defenses. Recent cross-strait engagements, including President Xi Jinping's April meeting with Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang leader and offers of economic incentives plus resumed direct flights, emphasize dialogue over escalation. China's ongoing military drills in the Taiwan Strait, deemed "reasonable and justified" as of April 17, show no amphibious invasion preparations amid PLA leadership purges disrupting capabilities. Late-breaking escalations or independence moves could shift odds, but current signals favor de-escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$288,023 Vol.
$288,023 Vol.
30 sep 2026
Sí
$288,023 Vol.
$288,023 Vol.
30 sep 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. intelligence agencies' March 2026 assessment that China lacks a committed timeline for invading Taiwan—preferring unification through non-military means like coercion and diplomacy—has anchored trader consensus at 93.5% against an assault by September 30, reflecting robust deterrence from U.S. alliances and Taiwan's defenses. Recent cross-strait engagements, including President Xi Jinping's April meeting with Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang leader and offers of economic incentives plus resumed direct flights, emphasize dialogue over escalation. China's ongoing military drills in the Taiwan Strait, deemed "reasonable and justified" as of April 17, show no amphibious invasion preparations amid PLA leadership purges disrupting capabilities. Late-breaking escalations or independence moves could shift odds, but current signals favor de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volumen
$288,023Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. intelligence agencies' March 2026 assessment that China lacks a committed timeline for invading Taiwan—preferring unification through non-military means like coercion and diplomacy—has anchored trader consensus at 93.5% against an assault by September 30, reflecting robust deterrence from U.S. alliances and Taiwan's defenses. Recent cross-strait engagements, including President Xi Jinping's April meeting with Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang leader and offers of economic incentives plus resumed direct flights, emphasize dialogue over escalation. China's ongoing military drills in the Taiwan Strait, deemed "reasonable and justified" as of April 17, show no amphibious invasion preparations amid PLA leadership purges disrupting capabilities. Late-breaking escalations or independence moves could shift odds, but current signals favor de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$288,023Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. intelligence agencies' March 2026 assessment that China lacks a committed timeline for invading Taiwan—preferring unification through non-military means like coercion and diplomacy—has anchored trader consensus at 93.5% against an assault by September 30, reflecting robust deterrence from U.S. alliances and Taiwan's defenses. Recent cross-strait engagements, including President Xi Jinping's April meeting with Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang leader and offers of economic incentives plus resumed direct flights, emphasize dialogue over escalation. China's ongoing military drills in the Taiwan Strait, deemed "reasonable and justified" as of April 17, show no amphibious invasion preparations amid PLA leadership purges disrupting capabilities. Late-breaking escalations or independence moves could shift odds, but current signals favor de-escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes