Trader consensus prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30 at just 4.5%, reflecting the absence of escalatory signals amid ongoing diplomatic overtures and routine PLA activities across the Taiwan Strait. In mid-April, Beijing announced 10 new measures to foster cross-Strait ties following Kuomintang Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun's meeting with Xi Jinping, emphasizing economic incentives over coercion. No major amphibious exercises or troop mobilizations have materialized in the past 30 days, underscoring high logistical barriers to invasion, including U.S. deterrence, Japanese basing access, and economic interdependence highlighted in CSIS wargames. President Trump's ongoing visit to Beijing for talks with Xi on arms sales to Taiwan and trade could introduce volatility, alongside potential triggers like independence declarations or heightened U.S. military transits.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$454,167 Vol.
$454,167 Vol.
30 sep 2026
Sí
$454,167 Vol.
$454,167 Vol.
30 sep 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30 at just 4.5%, reflecting the absence of escalatory signals amid ongoing diplomatic overtures and routine PLA activities across the Taiwan Strait. In mid-April, Beijing announced 10 new measures to foster cross-Strait ties following Kuomintang Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun's meeting with Xi Jinping, emphasizing economic incentives over coercion. No major amphibious exercises or troop mobilizations have materialized in the past 30 days, underscoring high logistical barriers to invasion, including U.S. deterrence, Japanese basing access, and economic interdependence highlighted in CSIS wargames. President Trump's ongoing visit to Beijing for talks with Xi on arms sales to Taiwan and trade could introduce volatility, alongside potential triggers like independence declarations or heightened U.S. military transits.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volumen
$454,167Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30 at just 4.5%, reflecting the absence of escalatory signals amid ongoing diplomatic overtures and routine PLA activities across the Taiwan Strait. In mid-April, Beijing announced 10 new measures to foster cross-Strait ties following Kuomintang Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun's meeting with Xi Jinping, emphasizing economic incentives over coercion. No major amphibious exercises or troop mobilizations have materialized in the past 30 days, underscoring high logistical barriers to invasion, including U.S. deterrence, Japanese basing access, and economic interdependence highlighted in CSIS wargames. President Trump's ongoing visit to Beijing for talks with Xi on arms sales to Taiwan and trade could introduce volatility, alongside potential triggers like independence declarations or heightened U.S. military transits.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$454,167Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30 at just 4.5%, reflecting the absence of escalatory signals amid ongoing diplomatic overtures and routine PLA activities across the Taiwan Strait. In mid-April, Beijing announced 10 new measures to foster cross-Strait ties following Kuomintang Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun's meeting with Xi Jinping, emphasizing economic incentives over coercion. No major amphibious exercises or troop mobilizations have materialized in the past 30 days, underscoring high logistical barriers to invasion, including U.S. deterrence, Japanese basing access, and economic interdependence highlighted in CSIS wargames. President Trump's ongoing visit to Beijing for talks with Xi on arms sales to Taiwan and trade could introduce volatility, alongside potential triggers like independence declarations or heightened U.S. military transits.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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