Ongoing grey-zone confrontations in the South China Sea, including China's March 29 naval, air, and coast guard patrols around Scarborough Shoal and late-March harassment of Filipino fishing vessels with water cannons, maritime militia, and a PLA Navy warship presence, underscore persistent tensions without crossing into kinetic military engagement. Mutual accusations of dangerous maneuvers, such as near-collisions between warships ahead of scheduled bilateral talks, have prompted Philippine protests and U.S. condemnations, yet both Manila and Beijing have confined actions to coast guard operations below the armed conflict threshold. This pattern of controlled escalation, echoing 2025 incidents at Second Thomas Shoal, reflects trader consensus at 77.5% for "No" clash before 2027, bolstered by diplomatic channels and deterrence from U.S.-Philippines mutual defense treaty amid no recent live fire or casualties.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$209,144 Vol.
$209,144 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$209,144 Vol.
$209,144 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing grey-zone confrontations in the South China Sea, including China's March 29 naval, air, and coast guard patrols around Scarborough Shoal and late-March harassment of Filipino fishing vessels with water cannons, maritime militia, and a PLA Navy warship presence, underscore persistent tensions without crossing into kinetic military engagement. Mutual accusations of dangerous maneuvers, such as near-collisions between warships ahead of scheduled bilateral talks, have prompted Philippine protests and U.S. condemnations, yet both Manila and Beijing have confined actions to coast guard operations below the armed conflict threshold. This pattern of controlled escalation, echoing 2025 incidents at Second Thomas Shoal, reflects trader consensus at 77.5% for "No" clash before 2027, bolstered by diplomatic channels and deterrence from U.S.-Philippines mutual defense treaty amid no recent live fire or casualties.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
Volumen
$209,144Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing grey-zone confrontations in the South China Sea, including China's March 29 naval, air, and coast guard patrols around Scarborough Shoal and late-March harassment of Filipino fishing vessels with water cannons, maritime militia, and a PLA Navy warship presence, underscore persistent tensions without crossing into kinetic military engagement. Mutual accusations of dangerous maneuvers, such as near-collisions between warships ahead of scheduled bilateral talks, have prompted Philippine protests and U.S. condemnations, yet both Manila and Beijing have confined actions to coast guard operations below the armed conflict threshold. This pattern of controlled escalation, echoing 2025 incidents at Second Thomas Shoal, reflects trader consensus at 77.5% for "No" clash before 2027, bolstered by diplomatic channels and deterrence from U.S.-Philippines mutual defense treaty amid no recent live fire or casualties.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$209,144Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing grey-zone confrontations in the South China Sea, including China's March 29 naval, air, and coast guard patrols around Scarborough Shoal and late-March harassment of Filipino fishing vessels with water cannons, maritime militia, and a PLA Navy warship presence, underscore persistent tensions without crossing into kinetic military engagement. Mutual accusations of dangerous maneuvers, such as near-collisions between warships ahead of scheduled bilateral talks, have prompted Philippine protests and U.S. condemnations, yet both Manila and Beijing have confined actions to coast guard operations below the armed conflict threshold. This pattern of controlled escalation, echoing 2025 incidents at Second Thomas Shoal, reflects trader consensus at 77.5% for "No" clash before 2027, bolstered by diplomatic channels and deterrence from U.S.-Philippines mutual defense treaty amid no recent live fire or casualties.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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