US intelligence assessments released March 18–19 conclude Chinese leaders do not plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027, preferring unification without force amid ongoing PLA modernization shortfalls, anchoring trader consensus at 85.5% for no military clash before then. Routine gray-zone tactics persist, with PLA air incursions resuming large-scale drills in the Taiwan Strait after a mid-March lull—26 sorties detected March 14–15—consistent with seasonal patterns rather than escalation signals. Taiwan bolsters deterrence via civil defense expansions and a proposed $40 billion defense package, wary of Beijing exploiting US Middle East distractions. Absent unprecedented mobilization or breakdowns in cross-Strait dialogue, markets price sustained coercion over outright conflict through 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$1,431,492 Vol.
$1,431,492 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Sí
$1,431,492 Vol.
$1,431,492 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments released March 18–19 conclude Chinese leaders do not plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027, preferring unification without force amid ongoing PLA modernization shortfalls, anchoring trader consensus at 85.5% for no military clash before then. Routine gray-zone tactics persist, with PLA air incursions resuming large-scale drills in the Taiwan Strait after a mid-March lull—26 sorties detected March 14–15—consistent with seasonal patterns rather than escalation signals. Taiwan bolsters deterrence via civil defense expansions and a proposed $40 billion defense package, wary of Beijing exploiting US Middle East distractions. Absent unprecedented mobilization or breakdowns in cross-Strait dialogue, markets price sustained coercion over outright conflict through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Volumen
$1,431,492Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments released March 18–19 conclude Chinese leaders do not plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027, preferring unification without force amid ongoing PLA modernization shortfalls, anchoring trader consensus at 85.5% for no military clash before then. Routine gray-zone tactics persist, with PLA air incursions resuming large-scale drills in the Taiwan Strait after a mid-March lull—26 sorties detected March 14–15—consistent with seasonal patterns rather than escalation signals. Taiwan bolsters deterrence via civil defense expansions and a proposed $40 billion defense package, wary of Beijing exploiting US Middle East distractions. Absent unprecedented mobilization or breakdowns in cross-Strait dialogue, markets price sustained coercion over outright conflict through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,431,492Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments released March 18–19 conclude Chinese leaders do not plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027, preferring unification without force amid ongoing PLA modernization shortfalls, anchoring trader consensus at 85.5% for no military clash before then. Routine gray-zone tactics persist, with PLA air incursions resuming large-scale drills in the Taiwan Strait after a mid-March lull—26 sorties detected March 14–15—consistent with seasonal patterns rather than escalation signals. Taiwan bolsters deterrence via civil defense expansions and a proposed $40 billion defense package, wary of Beijing exploiting US Middle East distractions. Absent unprecedented mobilization or breakdowns in cross-Strait dialogue, markets price sustained coercion over outright conflict through 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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