Market icon
Política·Taiwán

¿Lai Ching-te como presidente de Taiwán para el 31 de diciembre de 2026?

Market icon
Política·Taiwán

¿Lai Ching-te como presidente de Taiwán para el 31 de diciembre de 2026?

Sí

13% probabilidad
Polymarket

$23,984 Vol.

Sí

13% probabilidad
Polymarket

$23,984 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te remains securely in office nearly two years into his four-year term ending May 2028, with traders pricing an 87% implied probability he stays through December 31, 2026, reflecting high constitutional barriers to removal. Opposition parties KMT and TPP initiated impeachment proceedings in the Legislative Yuan on December 26, 2025—citing alleged constitutional violations amid legislative gridlock over defense spending and reforms—but lack the three-fourths supermajority needed to advance beyond symbolic hearings held in January 2026. Lai dismissed the effort as a waste of time during his January 1 New Year's address, emphasizing resilience against Chinese military drills. Recent February polls show approval near 47%, underscoring divided support but no crisis forcing resignation, recall, or ouster.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$23,984
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 7, 2026, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te remains securely in office nearly two years into his four-year term ending May 2028, with traders pricing an 87% implied probability he stays through December 31, 2026, reflecting high constitutional barriers to removal. Opposition parties KMT and TPP initiated impeachment proceedings in the Legislative Yuan on December 26, 2025—citing alleged constitutional violations amid legislative gridlock over defense spending and reforms—but lack the three-fourths supermajority needed to advance beyond symbolic hearings held in January 2026. Lai dismissed the effort as a waste of time during his January 1 New Year's address, emphasizing resilience against Chinese military drills. Recent February polls show approval near 47%, underscoring divided support but no crisis forcing resignation, recall, or ouster.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$23,984
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 7, 2026, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Lai Ching-te como presidente de Taiwán para el 31 de diciembre de 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Lai Ching-te dejará de ser presidente de Taiwán antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?" con 13%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 13¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 13% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Lai Ching-te como presidente de Taiwán para el 31 de diciembre de 2026?" ha generado $24K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jan 7, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Lai Ching-te como presidente de Taiwán para el 31 de diciembre de 2026?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Lai Ching-te como presidente de Taiwán para el 31 de diciembre de 2026?" es "¿Lai Ching-te dejará de ser presidente de Taiwán antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?" con 13%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 13% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Lai Ching-te como presidente de Taiwán para el 31 de diciembre de 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.