Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.5% implied probability of no US-China military clash before 2027, driven by the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, which concluded China is unlikely to invade Taiwan that year due to logistical challenges and high risks of escalation. Absent major provocations in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea over the past month, routine PLA drills have not signaled imminent conflict, while ongoing US-China diplomacy—including potential summits—emphasizes de-escalation amid economic interdependence. With seven months remaining, historical patterns of rhetorical tensions without kinetic action, bolstered by US deterrence enhancements, underpin this low-risk pricing, though sudden territorial disputes or cyberattacks could shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Enfrentamiento militar entre Estados Unidos y China antes de 2027?
¿Enfrentamiento militar entre Estados Unidos y China antes de 2027?
Sí
$104,679 Vol.
$104,679 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$104,679 Vol.
$104,679 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.5% implied probability of no US-China military clash before 2027, driven by the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, which concluded China is unlikely to invade Taiwan that year due to logistical challenges and high risks of escalation. Absent major provocations in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea over the past month, routine PLA drills have not signaled imminent conflict, while ongoing US-China diplomacy—including potential summits—emphasizes de-escalation amid economic interdependence. With seven months remaining, historical patterns of rhetorical tensions without kinetic action, bolstered by US deterrence enhancements, underpin this low-risk pricing, though sudden territorial disputes or cyberattacks could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volumen
$104,679Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.5% implied probability of no US-China military clash before 2027, driven by the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, which concluded China is unlikely to invade Taiwan that year due to logistical challenges and high risks of escalation. Absent major provocations in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea over the past month, routine PLA drills have not signaled imminent conflict, while ongoing US-China diplomacy—including potential summits—emphasizes de-escalation amid economic interdependence. With seven months remaining, historical patterns of rhetorical tensions without kinetic action, bolstered by US deterrence enhancements, underpin this low-risk pricing, though sudden territorial disputes or cyberattacks could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$104,679Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.5% implied probability of no US-China military clash before 2027, driven by the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, which concluded China is unlikely to invade Taiwan that year due to logistical challenges and high risks of escalation. Absent major provocations in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea over the past month, routine PLA drills have not signaled imminent conflict, while ongoing US-China diplomacy—including potential summits—emphasizes de-escalation amid economic interdependence. With seven months remaining, historical patterns of rhetorical tensions without kinetic action, bolstered by US deterrence enhancements, underpin this low-risk pricing, though sudden territorial disputes or cyberattacks could shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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